大仁Jaron
195 Posts
大仁Jaron
Square Verified+Wb3投研 • 价值投资 • AI研究员｜X: @Jaron2277
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3.7 Years
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橙子Joyce
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BullishWill the Federal Reserve raise rates as expected this week? Wall Street is debating: will it end the U.S. stock bull market?
After an unexpectedly strong U.S. CPI report came out last Friday, traders generally expect the Federal Reserve to begin raising rates at this week’s policy meeting—marking the first rate hike in more than three years.
Historically, previous rounds of rate hikes have offered a reference point for today’s market. Based on past experience (though history of course can’t guarantee the future), U.S. stocks may first weaken, then rebound.
Among the six tightening cycles since 1994, during the first four months after the rate-hike cycle began, the S&P 500’s average return was negative.
This suggests that once the “rate-hike shoe” drops, U.S. stocks may look lackluster through the beginning of next year.
As of the close last Friday, the benchmark U.S. equity index, the S&P 500, is up nearly 12% year to date. Strong corporate earnings and a fairly resilient economy have provided solid support for bulls in the stock market.
If you extend the time horizon, the S&P 500’s performance tends to improve gradually: in the 12 months after the start of a rate-hiking cycle, the index’s average return is close to 7%, with a median return of about 11%. (Using median-based statistics helps remove distortions from extreme outliers—for example, the index surged more than 40% after hikes began in March 1997.)
If the Federal Reserve implements a rate hike this Wednesday, it will be the first hike since July 2023—when the Fed raised rates to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.
Currently, the federal funds rate in the U.S. is at 3.50% to 3.75%. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, futures traders currently assign an 86% probability to a 25-basis-point hike this week.
One positive factor for the market is that mega-scale cloud service providers are still driving growth in excess returns through large-scale AI spending. The S&P 500 component stocks’ forecast for earnings growth in 2027 is expected to reach double digits. If the outlook for AI spending remains unchanged, it may be enough to offset any cooling in optimistic sentiment caused by the rate hikes.
Another bright spot for equities is that although inflation remains sticky, it appears to be slowing. The inflation rate has fallen from a May peak of 4.2%. This should allow the Federal Reserve to take a more gradual approach, and the data shows that the pace of rate hikes is crucial for stock performance—slower pacing gives investors more time to absorb policy changes!
$BZ
$CL
Energy
After an unexpectedly strong U.S. CPI report came out last Friday, traders generally expect the Federal Reserve to begin raising rates at this week’s policy meeting—marking the first rate hike in more than three years.
Historically, previous rounds of rate hikes have offered a reference point for today’s market. Based on past experience (though history of course can’t guarantee the future), U.S. stocks may first weaken, then rebound.
Among the six tightening cycles since 1994, during the first four months after the rate-hike cycle began, the S&P 500’s average return was negative.
This suggests that once the “rate-hike shoe” drops, U.S. stocks may look lackluster through the beginning of next year.
As of the close last Friday, the benchmark U.S. equity index, the S&P 500, is up nearly 12% year to date. Strong corporate earnings and a fairly resilient economy have provided solid support for bulls in the stock market.
If you extend the time horizon, the S&P 500’s performance tends to improve gradually: in the 12 months after the start of a rate-hiking cycle, the index’s average return is close to 7%, with a median return of about 11%. (Using median-based statistics helps remove distortions from extreme outliers—for example, the index surged more than 40% after hikes began in March 1997.)
If the Federal Reserve implements a rate hike this Wednesday, it will be the first hike since July 2023—when the Fed raised rates to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.
Currently, the federal funds rate in the U.S. is at 3.50% to 3.75%. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, futures traders currently assign an 86% probability to a 25-basis-point hike this week.
One positive factor for the market is that mega-scale cloud service providers are still driving growth in excess returns through large-scale AI spending. The S&P 500 component stocks’ forecast for earnings growth in 2027 is expected to reach double digits. If the outlook for AI spending remains unchanged, it may be enough to offset any cooling in optimistic sentiment caused by the rate hikes.
Another bright spot for equities is that although inflation remains sticky, it appears to be slowing. The inflation rate has fallen from a May peak of 4.2%. This should allow the Federal Reserve to take a more gradual approach, and the data shows that the pace of rate hikes is crucial for stock performance—slower pacing gives investors more time to absorb policy changes!
$BZ
$CL
Energy
乘风Sunshine
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I made money—earned 48 US dollars. Now playing event contracts is getting harder and harder. Getting some real “meat” is really not easy. My daily living expenses are in hand.
（ps: I’m recovering; when I’m back, I’ll stream steadily again. The preliminary plan is still the same old schedule: event contract at 7:00 AM, and perpetual contract at 10:00 PM）
（ps: I’m recovering; when I’m back, I’ll stream steadily again. The preliminary plan is still the same old schedule: event contract at 7:00 AM, and perpetual contract at 10:00 PM）
圣克斯Lucky1688
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🧧🔥🧧🔥🧧🔥 The recent market action is genuinely a back-and-forth probing. Here are 3 supporting indicators to help you verify a true breakout:
Spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta): Check whether the breakout is driven by spot active buying or by leveraged futures. If spot CVD and the contract price both make new highs at the same time, the odds of a real breakout are extremely high. If only the contracts pump while spot CVD stays flat, it’s often a false breakout.
SR-Flip (Resistance-to-Support confirmation): After a breakout, wait for the first pullback on the 5M/15M timeframe. If, when price retests the prior high resistance zone, it shows reduced volume and does not break down, it confirms that resistance has successfully flipped into support—an excellent right-side entry point with relatively low risk.
Liquidation Heatmap: If a large short liquidation pool (Liquidation Pool) has accumulated above key highs, then after price pierces through that area, if OI drops sharply, it indicates the liquidation has been completed and short-term momentum has largely been exhausted.
Follow me—answer 1 and take the $SOL red envelope.
🧧🔥🧧🔥🧧🔥
Spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta): Check whether the breakout is driven by spot active buying or by leveraged futures. If spot CVD and the contract price both make new highs at the same time, the odds of a real breakout are extremely high. If only the contracts pump while spot CVD stays flat, it’s often a false breakout.
SR-Flip (Resistance-to-Support confirmation): After a breakout, wait for the first pullback on the 5M/15M timeframe. If, when price retests the prior high resistance zone, it shows reduced volume and does not break down, it confirms that resistance has successfully flipped into support—an excellent right-side entry point with relatively low risk.
Liquidation Heatmap: If a large short liquidation pool (Liquidation Pool) has accumulated above key highs, then after price pierces through that area, if OI drops sharply, it indicates the liquidation has been completed and short-term momentum has largely been exhausted.
Follow me—answer 1 and take the $SOL red envelope.
🧧🔥🧧🔥🧧🔥
晚风Vesper_1688
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☀️A new day begins. Quietly guard your tea setting, and let your mind settle🍃
Brewing tea requires attention to heat and patience—trading is the same 📊.
Market fluctuations are normal; there’s no need to chase every move.
Amid the noise, keep your own rhythm and learn to observe calmly ✨.
Don’t blindly follow market noise; wait patiently for your own entry signal 💎.
Let your understanding sink in, steady your mindset—time will reward every commitment.
To those on the same path: with a calm heart and quiet spirit, move steadily and go far 🕊️
#交易心理
#1688家族family
Brewing tea requires attention to heat and patience—trading is the same 📊.
Market fluctuations are normal; there’s no need to chase every move.
Amid the noise, keep your own rhythm and learn to observe calmly ✨.
Don’t blindly follow market noise; wait patiently for your own entry signal 💎.
Let your understanding sink in, steady your mindset—time will reward every commitment.
To those on the same path: with a calm heart and quiet spirit, move steadily and go far 🕊️
#交易心理
#1688家族family
幸运雨Rain
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☀️ Morning light enters the room, and flourishing blooms unfold freely 🌷
Flowers bloom in cycles, and the market also returns in rounds 📊.
No need to worry about today’s ups and downs—every beautiful thing has its own timing 🕊️.
On the trading journey, staying true to your heart matters more than chasing volatility ✨.
Expect a little less with restless impatience, and hold to it for the long run a little more 💎.
Calm your mind, build your strength, and quietly wait for your own moment to arrive 🌿
Wishing fellow travelers: stay steady through plain days, and you will receive surprises ❤️
#AnthropicCEO呼吁放缓AI发展
#交易心理
#1688家族family
Flowers bloom in cycles, and the market also returns in rounds 📊.
No need to worry about today’s ups and downs—every beautiful thing has its own timing 🕊️.
On the trading journey, staying true to your heart matters more than chasing volatility ✨.
Expect a little less with restless impatience, and hold to it for the long run a little more 💎.
Calm your mind, build your strength, and quietly wait for your own moment to arrive 🌿
Wishing fellow travelers: stay steady through plain days, and you will receive surprises ❤️
#AnthropicCEO呼吁放缓AI发展
#交易心理
#1688家族family
灼见
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🚨 Grayscale makes another move—this time, it’s Litecoin.
Grayscale has just filed an updated document with the SEC, with plans to further convert:
Grayscale Litecoin Trust (LTCN)
into:
Grayscale Litecoin Trust ETF
and to list it on NYSE Arca.
Let’s start with the most important point:
⚠️ This does not mean the SEC has already approved it.
What’s really worth watching is another question:
Why are traditional institutions continually packing Crypto assets into the ETF “box”?
BTC has already gone down this road.
ETH has too.
Now, including LTC, more and more Crypto assets are trying to enter the ETF system of traditional finance.
And Litecoin is actually a particularly interesting choice.
It doesn’t have the recent hot narratives—AI, Meme, RWA.
Even many new Crypto users might think:
“Isn’t LTC the coin from the last cycle?”
But from an institutional perspective, it has several distinctive features:
⚪ Long enough history
⚪ A mature PoW mechanism
⚪ Long market operating track record
⚪ Relatively simple regulatory controversies
⚪ It already has a well-established trust product: LTCN
So I think what’s truly worth discussing today isn’t:
“How much can LTC go up today?”
but rather:
Is the Crypto ETF expanding from BTC and ETH to more assets?
If the answer is YES,
then the market may gradually form a new set of categories over time:
Stage one: BTC ETF
⬇️
Stage two: ETH ETF
⬇️
Stage three: More Crypto ETFs such as LTC / SOL / XRP
The long-term significance of this isn’t
whether any single coin jumps 10% in a day.
It’s that traditional finance is building more and more compliant entry points into the Crypto market.
In the past, investors needed:
Exchange → Wallet → Private key → On-chain operations.
In the future, more and more traditional capital may only need:
Open a brokerage account → Buy an ETF.
Every time the barrier drops,
the potential pool of capital expands.
So when I see documents related to an LTC ETF today,
I actually don’t think about Litecoin itself.
Instead, I think about:
After BTC and ETH, which Crypto asset will become the next batch to truly land on Wall Street shelves?
👇 If you could only pick one, which ETF narrative do you think deserves the most attention next?
LTC / SOL / XRP?
#BTC #ETH #BNB
Grayscale has just filed an updated document with the SEC, with plans to further convert:
Grayscale Litecoin Trust (LTCN)
into:
Grayscale Litecoin Trust ETF
and to list it on NYSE Arca.
Let’s start with the most important point:
⚠️ This does not mean the SEC has already approved it.
What’s really worth watching is another question:
Why are traditional institutions continually packing Crypto assets into the ETF “box”?
BTC has already gone down this road.
ETH has too.
Now, including LTC, more and more Crypto assets are trying to enter the ETF system of traditional finance.
And Litecoin is actually a particularly interesting choice.
It doesn’t have the recent hot narratives—AI, Meme, RWA.
Even many new Crypto users might think:
“Isn’t LTC the coin from the last cycle?”
But from an institutional perspective, it has several distinctive features:
⚪ Long enough history
⚪ A mature PoW mechanism
⚪ Long market operating track record
⚪ Relatively simple regulatory controversies
⚪ It already has a well-established trust product: LTCN
So I think what’s truly worth discussing today isn’t:
“How much can LTC go up today?”
but rather:
Is the Crypto ETF expanding from BTC and ETH to more assets?
If the answer is YES,
then the market may gradually form a new set of categories over time:
Stage one: BTC ETF
⬇️
Stage two: ETH ETF
⬇️
Stage three: More Crypto ETFs such as LTC / SOL / XRP
The long-term significance of this isn’t
whether any single coin jumps 10% in a day.
It’s that traditional finance is building more and more compliant entry points into the Crypto market.
In the past, investors needed:
Exchange → Wallet → Private key → On-chain operations.
In the future, more and more traditional capital may only need:
Open a brokerage account → Buy an ETF.
Every time the barrier drops,
the potential pool of capital expands.
So when I see documents related to an LTC ETF today,
I actually don’t think about Litecoin itself.
Instead, I think about:
After BTC and ETH, which Crypto asset will become the next batch to truly land on Wall Street shelves?
👇 If you could only pick one, which ETF narrative do you think deserves the most attention next?
LTC / SOL / XRP?
#BTC #ETH #BNB
大仁Jaron
·
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The “sweet spot poison pill” of index weights: SpaceX’s $12.4 billion passive buying is about to collide head-on with a flood of 2.3 billion shares set to be unblocked
A “non-fundamental” rally triggered by index rules
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
大仁Jaron
·
--
The “sweet spot poison pill” of index weights: SpaceX’s $12.4 billion passive buying is about to collide head-on with a flood of 2.3 billion shares set to be unblocked
A “non-fundamental” rally triggered by index rules
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
大仁Jaron
·
--
The “sweet spot poison pill” of index weights: SpaceX’s $12.4 billion passive buying is about to collide head-on with a flood of 2.3 billion shares set to be unblocked
A “non-fundamental” rally triggered by index rules
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
大仁Jaron
·
--
The “sweet spot poison pill” of index weights: SpaceX’s $12.4 billion passive buying is about to collide head-on with a flood of 2.3 billion shares set to be unblocked
A “non-fundamental” rally triggered by index rules
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
大仁Jaron
·
--
The “sweet spot poison pill” of index weights: SpaceX’s $12.4 billion passive buying is about to collide head-on with a flood of 2.3 billion shares set to be unblocked
A “non-fundamental” rally triggered by index rules
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
只会呐喊的尖刀手
·
--
Allow anything to happen.
Allow plans to be thrown off.
Allow yourself to be imperfect.
Allow today to be just an “ordinary day.”
You don’t have to shine all the time.
You can also be a quiet shadow.
That, too, is proof that you exist.
Allow plans to be thrown off.
Allow yourself to be imperfect.
Allow today to be just an “ordinary day.”
You don’t have to shine all the time.
You can also be a quiet shadow.
That, too, is proof that you exist.
帝王168
·
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I never want to lose you, because life feels different in the best way when you're in it. You became someone my heart feels safe with, someone I never want to imagine living without. Even the thought of losing you hurts deeply, because you mean more to me than simple words can explain. And no matter what life puts us through someday, I still hope we find our way back to each other every time.
Ahli Hidaya
·
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Bullish📊 The Great Decoupling: BTC’s Correlation Flips from Nasdaq to Gold! 🟡📈
A massive structural shift is taking place in Bitcoin's market behavior. If we look back to March, BTC's 90-day correlation stood at 0.57 with the Nasdaq-100 and just 0.21 with gold.
Fast forward to today, and those figures have completely flipped:
Current Nasdaq-100 Correlation: Dropped to 0.22 📉
Current Gold Correlation: Surged to 0.57 📈
👉 What does this mean for traders?
This dramatic shift suggests that Bitcoin is transitioning away from acting like a high-beta tech stock and is increasingly behaving like a traditional safe-haven asset aligned with gold. As macroeconomic uncertainties persist, BTC's role in institutional and retail portfolios may be evolving right before our eyes.
How are you positioning your portfolio for this macro shift? Drop your thoughts below! 👇
⚠️ Disclaimer / DYOR (Do Your Own Research): Market insights and statistical updates are shared for educational and informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research and manage your risk carefully before making any investment decisions!
💡 Want to earn while you trade? Join the Binance Earn Together program and claim your rewards here:
🔗 https://www.binance.com/referral/earn-together/refer2earn-usdc/claim?hl=en&ref=GRO_28502_WCYB7&utm_source=referral_entrance
#Bitcoin #Gold #MacroEconomics #BinanceSquare #DYOR$BTC $XAUT $NVDAB
A massive structural shift is taking place in Bitcoin's market behavior. If we look back to March, BTC's 90-day correlation stood at 0.57 with the Nasdaq-100 and just 0.21 with gold.
Fast forward to today, and those figures have completely flipped:
Current Nasdaq-100 Correlation: Dropped to 0.22 📉
Current Gold Correlation: Surged to 0.57 📈
👉 What does this mean for traders?
This dramatic shift suggests that Bitcoin is transitioning away from acting like a high-beta tech stock and is increasingly behaving like a traditional safe-haven asset aligned with gold. As macroeconomic uncertainties persist, BTC's role in institutional and retail portfolios may be evolving right before our eyes.
How are you positioning your portfolio for this macro shift? Drop your thoughts below! 👇
⚠️ Disclaimer / DYOR (Do Your Own Research): Market insights and statistical updates are shared for educational and informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research and manage your risk carefully before making any investment decisions!
💡 Want to earn while you trade? Join the Binance Earn Together program and claim your rewards here:
🔗 https://www.binance.com/referral/earn-together/refer2earn-usdc/claim?hl=en&ref=GRO_28502_WCYB7&utm_source=referral_entrance
#Bitcoin #Gold #MacroEconomics #BinanceSquare #DYOR$BTC $XAUT $NVDAB
Maraishh
·
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LUCIC is a crypto asset that can be traded in the cryptocurrency market. Its price movement is influenced by trading volume, market sentiment, and community attention.......
x_Rex
·
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Have a Good Day Everyone 💐🧧
It's Been a while since I posted Anything New.
And for the next few days:
Next Target 22k✅
Follow & Repost Fam✨✅💐
Thanks😇😸
$BTC Trading is 🔥
It's Been a while since I posted Anything New.
And for the next few days:
Next Target 22k✅
Follow & Repost Fam✨✅💐
Thanks😇😸
$BTC Trading is 🔥
大仁Jaron
·
--
The “sweet spot poison pill” of index weights: SpaceX’s $12.4 billion passive buying is about to collide head-on with a flood of 2.3 billion shares set to be unblocked
A “non-fundamental” rally triggered by index rules
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered.
The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying.
The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
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