On July 29, the FOMC will meet—this is the second meeting since Warsh took office. CME FedWatch shows a 69.5% probability of holding rates steady and a 30.5% probability of raising rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%.
But what the market is really watching isn’t whether there will be a rate hike or not—the focus is on “forward guidance,” the forward-looking guidance.
Historically, BTC has been more sensitive to the tone of Fed policy than to the actual interest-rate decision itself—when “rates stay unchanged” is the consensus expectation, the driving force behind price movement comes from the wording, not the outcome.
I’m watching five dimensions. First, whether Warsh clearly distinguishes the decision path for July versus September—if he discusses the two meetings separately, September uncertainty will decrease. Second, whether the term “inflation progress” appears—if it does, that would suggest a softening hawkish stance. Third, updates to the dot plot: more members shifting toward rate cuts within the year is a more direct signal than the public statement. Fourth, any wording in the press conference regarding BTC strategic reserves will be parsed by the market word-for-word. Fifth, the 30.5% probability of a hike—if it really happens, those 500 million dollars in outstanding options contracts betting on key strike prices could trigger forced liquidations, amplifying price volatility.
After July 29, the market will make a clear move in either direction—these are the 48 hours in July most worth watching.
Have you adjusted your positions before the FOMC? Tell us which direction you’re betting on.
$BTC
$ETH
But what the market is really watching isn’t whether there will be a rate hike or not—the focus is on “forward guidance,” the forward-looking guidance.
Historically, BTC has been more sensitive to the tone of Fed policy than to the actual interest-rate decision itself—when “rates stay unchanged” is the consensus expectation, the driving force behind price movement comes from the wording, not the outcome.
I’m watching five dimensions. First, whether Warsh clearly distinguishes the decision path for July versus September—if he discusses the two meetings separately, September uncertainty will decrease. Second, whether the term “inflation progress” appears—if it does, that would suggest a softening hawkish stance. Third, updates to the dot plot: more members shifting toward rate cuts within the year is a more direct signal than the public statement. Fourth, any wording in the press conference regarding BTC strategic reserves will be parsed by the market word-for-word. Fifth, the 30.5% probability of a hike—if it really happens, those 500 million dollars in outstanding options contracts betting on key strike prices could trigger forced liquidations, amplifying price volatility.
After July 29, the market will make a clear move in either direction—these are the 48 hours in July most worth watching.
Have you adjusted your positions before the FOMC? Tell us which direction you’re betting on.
$BTC
$ETH
