Yesterday, Polymarket's forcast market, which has a "Will Arbitrum token drop by March 31, 2023" bet, saw a dramatic change:
As of this morning - participants were betting 60% on the "Won't" option and 38% on the "Will Drop" option, but massive market buying changed that ratio: As of 8am YES - 70%, NO - 30%, now settled YES - 63%, NO - 42%.
Do insiders know anything? What causes the change in airdrop prediction sentiment?
Rumors about airdrop started massively spread by influencers, Brainless (i.e. Bankless) funder wrote: "have a good rest, tomorrow is a big day, listen to your mom and dad".
But everything was a bit simpler: Cobie Influencer, seeing the dynamics of Yes token purchases, decided to add fuel to the fire and together with his colleagues spread a rumor about the soonest drop, which caused a wave of speculation, describing the information spreading method this way:
"The trick is to write about airdrop every time someone makes a mass buy in the March forecast market. I've been wrong 5 times, but in the end I'll be right, and everyone will forget about the other cases."
