Bitcoin’s halving occurs every four years, which essentially determines the boom and bust cycle of the cryptocurrency market. The next Bitcoin halving will occur at block 840,000, approximately 300 days from today.
When the next Bitcoin halving date arrives (in 2024), the Bitcoin halving will reduce the mining block reward from 6.25 Bitcoin to 3.125 Bitcoin. The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur on Saturday, April 27, 2024 at 05:03:39 PM UTC. The specific time may vary by 1 to 2 days due to mining difficulty.
The halving occurred on November 12, 2012, and it took 92 days to reach the market’s peak.
The halving took place on July 9, 2016, and it took 180 days to reach the market’s peak.
The halving took place on May 11, 2020, and it took 204 days to reach the market’s highest point.
Prediction: The halving will occur on April 27, 2024, taking 240 days to reach the market’s top. The market will peak around December 27, 2024. It can be seen that as time goes by, the time to reach the highest point of the market after each halving will be lengthened. The reason is simple, the amount of money the market requires is growing exponentially. Small fluctuations in 2023 are a harbinger of the future bull market. This year's trend also plays an important reference role in predicting the future bull market.
First of all, when the bull market began, Bitcoin was the first to soar, while mainstream currencies performed dismal. Second, Bitcoin was trading sideways for a while, while Ethereum started to surge higher. Bitcoin is trading sideways again, with other imitation coins not far behind. Then the nonsense got crazy and the cryptocurrency market started to weaken. Then came the NFT craze and Ponzi chain gaming. Finally, there is a crash, altcoins go to zero, and the bear market resumes.
All investors in the currency circle now believe that 2025 will usher in a bull market for the cryptocurrency market. Some friends in the group said that they all believe that there will be a bull market in 2025, and then the bull market will not come. While no one knows when the bull market will arrive, and no one needs to know, we do know that the bull market will return one day.
The next currency feast will probably not come on time. The cryptocurrency market has been in a bear market for a year. Bitcoin fell from $69,000 to over $15,000. More imitation coins fell by more than 90%. Starting to rebound on January 1, Bitcoin has risen to about $31,000 today, an increase of nearly 100%, and more imitation coins are rising crazily. This is a barbaric, crazy, and unregulated market where innovation and deception coexist, and value and bubbles coexist. Capital flows to places with stories, futures and returns. Digital currency, blockchain, Bitcoin, and Ethereum definitely have a future. Valuable applications are by no means a tulip bubble.
According to the multi-year Bitcoin trend pattern combined with the US dollar liquidity cycle, Bitcoin halves every four years, which coincides with the easing of the US dollar, which is exactly the four-year bull-bear cycle, with halvings in 12, 16, and 20 years, around 24 years. start. 2013, 2017, 21, and 25 are all years when the bull market ends. The recent two rounds of rising points are highly consistent with the US dollar's quantitative easing interest rate. After the epidemic in 2020, the U.S. dollar became loose and digital currencies began a feverish bull market. 2014, 2018, 2022, and 26 are all big bear markets. The timing of the bull-bear reversal is highly consistent with the U.S. dollar's interest rate hike and balance sheet reduction cycle. A rising tide lifts all boats. Prices are driven by capital, and only abundant liquidity will bring about a crazy bull market.
The bull market is a season for sowing and harvesting, not for sowing. However, many people do not understand that losing money in a bull market is natural. In a bull market, it is easy to have the illusion that money is made in the currency circle. In fact, many people who make money often sow their seeds in bear markets. The bull market is the season of harvest, not suitable for sowing.
And a bear market is a time to sow seeds. However, many people do not understand that losing money in a bull market is natural. Conventional forecasts suggest that a new bull market will take about a year. Now that we have entered the second half of a bear market, any rise will be accompanied by a fall. The currency circle has always been a place of speculation, so don’t treat it with an investment mentality. This would be a terrible death because 99% of digital currencies will eventually go to zero. The cryptocurrency market is a market that eats people and creates myths. This is both a paradise for speculators and a hell for gamblers. The 24/7 trading hours are addictive, and the 100x leverage is even more crazy.
One day in the currency circle is one year in the human world. One idea succeeds, another fails. Looking at it another way, how deep can Bitcoin fall in every bear market? In the bear market of 2015, it fell 6.5 times from high to low. In the 2018 bear market, it fell 5.9 times from high to low. Both bear market declines were 6 times. If the bear market remains true in 2022, the bottom should be around $10,000 after 6 declines from the high of $67,000. Compared with the previous two rounds of bear markets, this round of bear markets is obviously different.
Due to the intervention of the national teams of El Salvador, Central Africa, the Dominican Republic and other countries, as well as the US listed company MicroStrategy, Hong Kong listed company Meitu, etc., when Bitcoin fell in the bear market, they purchased Bitcoin, thereby increasing the price of Bitcoin. Now, on June 20, 2023, the EDX Markets centralized exchange led by American super teams such as Castle Securities, Fidelity Investments, and Charles Schwab was officially launched.
Also on June 22, 2023, BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, applied to launch a Bitcoin spot ETF. The entry of BlackRock and the launch of the EDX centralized exchange are preliminary preparations for large American institutions to enter the currency circle. The entire cryptocurrency market is actually a market driven by incremental funding. Large American institutions only need 2% of their capital to enter the market.
The price of Bitcoin will soar rapidly, and the cryptocurrency market’s four-year bull-bear cycle will quickly disappear. If there is a breakthrough, the monthly and annual cycles of currency holdings will have no reference value at all. However, large American institutions will not intervene at will and suddenly change the bull-bear cycle. Large institutions have large amounts of funds and are slow to enter and exit the market. Before entering the market, they must resolve compliance issues and make preliminary preparations. Once they enter the market, they may appear in actions such as ambushing at the bottom, pumping and dumping, and smashing the market. Only when the market is broken and large institutions obtain enough chips at the bottom, will a new round of institutional bull market return.
Finally, walking alone is lonely, and the bull market is coming. The Qiqi threshold-free small circle welcomes everyone to join us. We will move forward hand in hand and face the uncertainty of the future with certainty.
