The end of December is the time to summarize the results of the year and make plans for the coming year. In this article we will analyze the factors affecting the price of BTC and the most likely scenario for its movement in 2024
Macroeconomics
▪️ Key Rate. Central banks of developed countries have taken a pause in the cycle of rate hikes. According to the forward curve with a probability of 87% the first rate cut by the Fed will occur in March.
▪️ Liquidity. The amount of money in the system is growing thanks to the reverse repo market, which is stimulating investor appetite for high-risk assets.
Domestic factors
▪️ Halving. Reduced reward to miners according to VanEck analysts (https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vanecks-15-crypto-predictions-for-2024/) plays far from a key role in pricing, but has a positive impact on sentiment.
▪️ Spot ETF. The adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs is in the final stages and is likely to be (https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sec-could-make-crypto-history-in-new-year-with-first-spot-bitcoin-etf-approval) approved by the SEC in January. According to Goldman Sachs, this will attract more institutional investors
Technical picture
Any fluctuation in price is an interaction of supply and demand on an exchange. If we look at the map of traded volumes, we can see that a large number of buy volumes are distributed from the bottom: range #1 $32,000 - $26,000 and range #2 $24,000 - $18,000. This means that the downside will require a huge amount of effort from sellers to overcome these areas.
🔰 Priority scenario for 2024: continued upward movement from historical high $69,000 problems.
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