According to TechFlow, Token Unlocks data shows that APT, IMX, XAI and other projects will have a one-time large-scale token unlocking this week. Among them, XAI will unlock 198.4 million XAI on July 9, worth about $63.89 million, accounting for 71.59% of the circulating supply. Dydx will unlock 1.55 million DYDX on July 9, worth about $1.96 million, accounting for 0.68% of the circulating supply. io.net will unlock 2.11 million IO on July 11, worth about $4.65 million, accounting for 2.22% of the circulating supply. Immutable will unlock 32.47 million IMX on July 12, worth about $40.59 million, accounting for 2.15% of the circulating supply. Aptos will unlock 11.31 million APT on July 12, worth about $65.37 million, accounting for 2.49% of the circulating supply. Ethena will unlock 14.89 million ENA on July 14, worth approximately $5.99 million, accounting for 0.87% of the circulating supply.
According to Odaily Planet Daily, despite the volatility of BTC prices and a five-month low, several key indicators suggest that bulls may still have the upper hand. The market pullback was mainly due to concerns about a market sell-off due to Mt.Gox's continued repayment of more than 140,000 BTC to its customers and the German government's BTC liquidation, but the selling pressure is weakening. In addition, two classic technical indicators support the bullish reversal scenario. Bitcoin BTC formed a bullish hammer line pattern on July 5, and the daily RSI reading hovered around the oversold threshold of 30. Wall Street is betting on an increased probability of a September rate cut. According to CME data, as of July 7, Wall Street traders believe that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is 72%. Bitcoin ETF investors returned after the July decline, and the capital inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs resumed. The US money supply is expanding again, and the capitulation of Bitcoin miners suggests that the BTC price has bottomed out.
● Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital: More than 98% of altcoins have peaked in this cycle
According to TechFlow, Andrew Kang, co-founder and partner of Mechanism Capital, said that the most common mistake in the crypto market is to buy too early when the trend turns from rising to falling. He pointed out that the adjustment after the collapse of the large market structure is often deeper and longer than expected. Kang suggested buying for the next cycle when the market is generally liquidated, many people exit, and question whether cryptocurrencies will die forever.
He believes that more than 98% of altcoins have peaked in this cycle, and only a few may hit new highs in the fourth quarter of 2024 or the first quarter of 2025. Bitcoin is transitioning to a super-cycle asset, combining the characteristics of previous cycle behaviors and mature macro assets. Kang also mentioned that it is mainly a few meme coins that may hit new highs, but they need to be selected carefully.
● The ETF Store President: Ethereum spot ETF is more likely to be launched in the week of July 15
According to Odaily Planet Daily, Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, said he would be "shocked" if the spot Ethereum ETF was not listed and traded in the next two weeks. He predicted that the Ethereum ETF may be launched later next week, but it is more likely to be the week of July 15. It is worth noting that since the "accidental" approval of Form 19b-4 at the end of May, the price of ETH has fallen by more than 20%.
● Report: Bitcoin mining market faces pressure, mining companies will enter an era of consolidation
According to BlockBeats, on July 8, crypto data company Coin Metrics released a report on the current state of the Bitcoin mining market. The report pointed out that since the Bitcoin halving in April, mining profit margins have been under pressure, BTC prices have stagnated, and the fee market has been sluggish. Although short-term on-chain congestion has eased some revenue pressure, May and June are still very difficult months for miners.
● CME Fed Watch: The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 72.5%
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 22.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 72.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.1%.
