According to U.Today, well-known trader Peter Brandt recently published an in-depth analysis titled "Does History Prove That Bitcoin Has Peaked?" He delved into the concept of exponential decay, suggesting that Bitcoin's bull cycle has gradually lost momentum over time. Brandt highlighted four important bull cycles in Bitcoin's history, and the current rally marks the fifth. He noticed a worrying trend: each consecutive cycle saw a reduction in exponential growth, indicating that momentum has been lost by about 80% since the previous cycle.
Based on this trend, experts predict that the potential peak of the current cycle could be around $72,723, a figure that has already been reached in recent trading. While acknowledging the historical impact of halving events on Bitcoin prices, Brandt emphasized the harsh reality of exponential decay, suggesting that BTC may already have a 25% chance of reaching the peak of this cycle.
In the event of a market top, he speculates on a possible price pullback, foreseeing a possible drop in Bitcoin prices to around $30,000, or even back to the 2021 lows. Although this would imply a bear market, he believes such a correction could be bullish in the long term, comparing it to similar chart patterns observed in the gold market. Brandt acknowledged the importance of the data in the conclusion of his analysis, stating: "Do I believe the analysis just presented? I don't want to, but the data speaks for itself."