According to Wu, the speeches of Fed officials last week were generally hawkish, including delaying rate cuts, inflation stickiness, and restrictive interest rates for a longer period of time. This week, we will focus on the US first quarter GDP and March PCE data. Against the backdrop of the March CPI exceeding expectations, PCE, as the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, will be crucial at this point in time.

Last week, Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson said that if necessary, policy will remain restrictive for longer. Fed Chairman Powell hinted that rate cuts will be delayed due to the continued stickiness of recent inflation. 2024 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester said that interest rates will be cut at some point, but there is no need to rush. 2024 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that patience can be maintained and that rate cuts are unlikely before the end of the year. He reiterated that he expects one rate cut this year and is open to rate hikes.

Key events this week include the manufacturing PMIs of the UK, France, Germany, the US and Europe on April 23, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending April 20 on April 25, the preliminary value of the US first quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate, the preliminary value of the US first quarter core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate, the release of the minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Canada, and the target interest rate of the Bank of Japan as of April 26, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index in March, and the final value of the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April on April 26.