According to Jinshi, Monex believes that the US dollar will rise based on the following points: Solid job growth: Strong March employment data suggests strong economic health, which may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut.
Bond yields: Strong economic growth and rising commodity prices have pushed up bond yields, which has increased the appeal of the dollar.
Market action: But there is the potential for a major technical breakout in key currency pairs, which would suggest that the dollar is poised to strengthen (albeit with a short delay), especially if CPI rises this week.
Central Bank Policy: Dovish shifts by the ECB and Bank of Canada, in contrast to the Fed, should boost the dollar’s appeal.
This week, if strong CPI pushes USD/JPY to 152 and triggers possible intervention, it could put short-term pressure on the dollar, which is a risk worth considering.
