Polymarket traders have expressed strong belief in the likelihood of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved by 2025. Current market odds indicate an 82% chance of approval, reflecting growing optimism within the cryptocurrency community. The previous probability peaked at 89% when U.S. President Trump took office on January 20. However, this enthusiasm was tempered four days later following a closed meeting of officials from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the agency's ongoing lawsuit against Ripple.

The SEC meeting dampens optimism about the XRP ETF.

On January 24, acting SEC Chairman Mark Uyeda, along with other commissioners, held a closed discussion about the future of the legal battle between the SEC and Ripple Labs. This meeting caused a slight decline in investor confidence in the XRP ETF, as regulatory uncertainty remains a key factor in determining approval prospects.

Despite a temporary dip, data from the Polymarket platform indicates that market confidence in the approval of the XRP ETF has increased by 19% in the past week. Furthermore, 54% of participants speculate that the SEC could approve it as early as July 31, 2025.

Filings for the XRP ETF continue to increase.

The growing optimism surrounding the XRP ETF follows Grayscale's recent move to convert its current XRP Trust into an ETF. On January 30, Grayscale filed a 19b-4 application with the SEC to list this fund on the NYSE Arca.

According to the filing, Grayscale's XRP Trust is one of the largest investment funds linked to XRP, managing over $16 million in assets. Coinbase Custody Trust has been designated as the custodian for the proposed ETF, while BNY Mellon Asset Servicing will serve as the transfer agent.

Grayscale argues that converting its XRP Trust into an ETF would provide investors with a more managed and accessible means to access XRP. The company joins other investment management firms, including CoinShares, WisdomTree, ProShares, REX Shares, and Bitwise, which have also filed for XRP ETFs.

The road to the XRP ETF is not without challenges. Ripple's ongoing lawsuit with the SEC remains a significant hurdle for regulatory approval. The SEC initially sued Ripple Labs at the end of 2020, alleging that the company and its executives conducted an unregistered securities offering worth $1.3 billion.

In 2023, the lawsuit was partially dismissed when U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres ruled that the programmatic sale of XRP to retail investors does not constitute a securities offering. The judge found that these sales "lacked the characteristics" of an investment contract, which undermines the SEC's claims.

Market speculation has recently arisen as Ripple removed references to the lawsuit from its litigation website. However, legal expert Jeremy Hogan clarified that the lawsuit is still ongoing. According to lawyer James Filan, Ripple filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit on January 24, requesting a deadline of April 16, 2025, to submit their brief for the SEC appeal.

XRP price outlook and market performance.

After a brief pullback in mid-January, XRP's price stabilized within a support range of $2.52 to $2.68. Technical analysis from TradingView indicates this cryptocurrency's Fibonacci retracement level is $3.3418. If XRP surpasses this level in the coming weeks, it could retest the all-time high of $3.84, a peak reached seven years ago. However, breaking the $4 threshold before mid-February remains uncertain.

With increasing institutional interest in the XRP ETF and ongoing legal proceedings, the market is closely monitoring how legal developments will impact the future of Ripple's native token. Whether the SEC will change its stance towards approval remains a crucial factor that could determine the trajectory of XRP adoption in mainstream finance. Polymarket users predict an 82% chance of the XRP ETF being approved in 2025.

Polymarket traders have expressed strong belief in the likelihood of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved by 2025. Current market odds indicate an 82% chance of approval, reflecting growing optimism within the cryptocurrency community. The previous probability peaked at 89% when U.S. President Trump took office on January 20. However, this enthusiasm was tempered four days later following a closed meeting of officials from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the agency's ongoing lawsuit against Ripple.

The SEC meeting dampens optimism about the XRP ETF.

On January 24, acting SEC Chairman Mark Uyeda, along with other commissioners, held a closed discussion about the future of the legal battle between the SEC and Ripple Labs. This meeting caused a slight decline in investor confidence in the XRP ETF, as regulatory uncertainty remains a key factor in determining approval prospects.

Despite a temporary dip, data from the Polymarket platform indicates that market confidence in the approval of the XRP ETF has increased by 19% in the past week. Furthermore, 54% of participants speculate that the SEC could approve it as early as July 31, 2025.

Filings for the XRP ETF continue to increase.

The growing optimism surrounding the XRP ETF follows Grayscale's recent move to convert its current XRP Trust into an ETF. On January 30, Grayscale filed a 19b-4 application with the SEC to list this fund on the NYSE Arca.

According to the filing, Grayscale's XRP Trust is one of the largest investment funds linked to XRP, managing over $16 million in assets. Coinbase Custody Trust has been designated as the custodian for the proposed ETF, while BNY Mellon Asset Servicing will serve as the transfer agent.

Grayscale argues that converting its XRP Trust into an ETF would provide investors with a more managed and accessible means to access XRP. The company joins other investment management firms, including CoinShares, WisdomTree, ProShares, REX Shares, and Bitwise, which have also filed for XRP ETFs.

The road to the XRP ETF is not without challenges. Ripple's ongoing lawsuit with the SEC remains a significant hurdle for regulatory approval. The SEC initially sued Ripple Labs at the end of 2020, alleging that the company and its executives conducted an unregistered securities offering worth $1.3 billion.

In 2023, the lawsuit was partially dismissed when U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres ruled that the programmatic sale of XRP to retail investors does not constitute a securities offering. The judge found that these sales "lacked the characteristics" of an investment contract, which undermines the SEC's claims.

Market speculation has recently arisen as Ripple removed references to the lawsuit from its litigation website. However, legal expert Jeremy Hogan clarified that the lawsuit is still ongoing. According to lawyer James Filan, Ripple filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit on January 24, requesting a deadline of April 16, 2025, to submit their brief for the SEC appeal.

XRP price outlook and market performance.

After a brief pullback in mid-January, XRP's price stabilized within a support range of $2.52 to $2.68. Technical analysis from TradingView indicates this cryptocurrency's Fibonacci retracement level is $3.3418. If XRP surpasses this level in the coming weeks, it could retest the all-time high of $3.84, a peak reached seven years ago. However, breaking the $4 threshold before mid-February remains uncertain.

With increasing institutional interest in the XRP ETF and ongoing legal proceedings, the market is closely monitoring how legal developments will impact the future of Ripple's native token. Whether the SEC will change its stance towards approval remains a crucial factor that could determine the trajectory of XRP adoption in mainstream finance.