January 31, 2025.
The market cannot be correct for everyone.
The adjustment in the market continues, and emotionally, I also hope that Q1 of 2025 will see a season of fakes, with a general rise in the market.
Rationally, however, too many people are in consensus about the season of fakes.
Therefore, the probability of a correction in Q1 of 2025 is greater, and it may even experience sideways fluctuations, while the probability of a comprehensive rise is the smallest.
The market will generally run in the opposite direction of public expectations.
Buying at undervalued prices means not having to bear excessive risks.
The view that risks have disappeared is one of the most dangerous sources of risk and is also a major factor that contributes to market bubbles.
Understanding current group behavior can provide a glimpse into the signs of a crash.
When everyone is saying, "No matter how low it drops, I won't buy in," this is a signal of very low risk in the market.
When everyone is saying, "No matter how high it rises, it won't be too high," this is a signal of very high risk in the market.
Substantial profits come from the crowd going east while you go west.
When everyone believes something is risky, the unwillingness to purchase will drive the price down to a point where there is virtually no risk.
When everyone believes something is not risky, the price is usually driven up to a level that contains substantial risk.
When everyone believes there is no risk, that is when the risk is at its highest.