BTC fell smoothly last night and fell to the previous low of 91,200, then broke through and recovered, and then had a slight rebound. We are looking forward to a market similar to that in January last year, and a new round of main upward wave will start after plundering the parallel lows. The trend this time is somewhat similar, with sideways consolidation after setting a new high. If there is a downward spike in the same way, and the stop losses of the long positions above are all knocked out, perhaps we can start the next round of upward wave with light equipment.
Many people point the finger at Silk Road. In the capital market, any news that can be quantified is not really bad news. During the period of Grayscale selling and Mentougou liquidation, the market just tossed and digested it and it was over. What really scares people is the unknown. Once the cards are revealed, the panic will almost be over. ETH did not rebound much, but it fell very actively. However, it also came to an area with a relatively high cost-effectiveness, which is also near the 200MA. If you hold ether and are stuck, just play dead and wait for its narrative to restart.
The non-farm data will be released at 9:30 tonight. The non-farm data will determine whether to cut interest rates or not. However, the last time the Federal Reserve spoke, it had already released a signal that there would be no interest rate hike, and the market's expectation of no interest rate cut in January has reached more than 90%, so this data may have already been negative for risk aversion in advance. It is estimated that the market will fluctuate slightly when it is released, but it will not be too bad.
Secondly, the ratio of longs to shorts has also reached a relatively high level, indicating that long positions are relatively safe. Currently, the Bitcoin funding rate BN has become negative, and BNB has even shown a funding rate of -0.03. This situation will often be corrected in a short period of time. Judging from the 7-day liquidation data of the short positions above, a large number of short positions have accumulated at or below 103,000 waiting to be liquidated.
I have said before that before Trump came to power, the price of Bitcoin may continue to go to the range of 103,000 to 105,000. After all, this wave of market rise is due to Trump's coming to power. Before the corresponding good news lands, according to the trend before the news lands, there will be a wave of rising market. This wave gives an opportunity to rebound. Remember not to fight to the end of the war. When the cost should be reduced, it should be reduced. As the year is coming to an end in our country, it is better to take profits or take profits and have a good New Year. In the past few days, the market has been fluctuating and adjusting, and most of the altcoins are following the market's fluctuations and washing, and the general decline is about 20%.
Judging from market sentiment, the fear and greed index has dropped to 50, indicating that everyone's mood is relatively low and there are more and more bearish voices.
However, I don't think there is any need to worry too much. The long-term upward trend is still there. There are two main trends in the market now: one is the shift from monetary tightening to monetary easing.
This is already happening, it's just a matter of time. In fact, the US economy is not that good, and its national debt is very large. After Trump took office on January 20, the most effective solution is to flood the market with money, and it would be best if it could continue.
Although the Federal Reserve has made many hawkish remarks, these are all expectation management. For example, in December last year, the Federal Reserve said that the economy was too good to reduce inflation and that it would cut interest rates at most twice next year, but it actually cut interest rates before the end of the year.
Therefore, the core problem of the United States is the national debt. The whole world knows that the total amount of U.S. debt is soaring rapidly. Now that the Federal Reserve can't solve the problem, Trump has begun to try to use cryptocurrencies to fill the gap in the national debt.
Trump has previously said that he wants to use Bitcoin to repay the $3.6 billion in U.S. treasury debt, so don’t pay attention to any hawkish remarks made by the Federal Reserve. That is just management of market expectations, and the Federal Reserve can only cooperate with Trump in flooding the market with money.
Another trend is the transfer of power in the US president. Unless the US economy goes into recession, I think the transfer of power will be good for the market.
If Trump says a few more words in support of cryptocurrency during the transition, Bitcoin could be back above $100,000 in no time.
Therefore, we are very optimistic about the medium- and long-term trends, because against the backdrop of massive global money printing, the market is not short of liquidity at all. Liquidity is only managed by the Federal Reserve's expectations.
There is only one trading day left for the U.S. stock market this week. I hope that when the U.S. stock market opens tonight, the ETF data will usher in a wave of bottom-fishing.
The reason why everyone is so pessimistic is mainly because everyone has high expectations for altcoins, and the recent performance of altcoins has been unsatisfactory:
As long as you don’t leave the table, you will definitely get a satisfactory result in 25 years. Just be patient.
From the news perspective, the first wave of large-scale increases from 30,000 to more than 60,000 doubled, mainly benefiting from the listing of BlackRock Bitcoin spot ETF.
The second wave of doubling from more than 50,000 to just over 100,000 mainly benefited from the Trump trading fomo market generated by Trump's election victory.
So what is the third wave of news that can trigger the main uptrend of Bitcoin?
The biggest expectation is that Bitcoin will become a strategic reserve of the Americans, which will trigger a third wave of rapid surge in Bitcoin prices. Whether it is BlackRock or MicroStrategy, why do they continue to buy at all costs? Because in their eyes, Bitcoin 100,000 is just the beginning, and the consensus of some interest groups is beyond the reach of ordinary people, but we only need to know from their behavior that the market may have just begun.
Friends who have done gold trading should know that after the gold price reached its peak in 1980, it maintained a volatile downward trend for more than 20 years, neither hot nor cold, and the price did not fluctuate much. After BlackRock listed the gold spot ETF in 2003, the gold price has risen nearly 10 times this year, and has been rising for 20 years. This is the power of American influence.
Back to the cryptocurrency circle, the Americans’ exploration of encryption has just begun, and the market still has a long way to go.
Brothers, come and gather here!
Click on the yellow font to join Binance’s official Mr. Krabs chat room!
Real-time wealth codes including market reminders and faith recharge will be carried out! Welcome everyone!
