Bitcoin continues to find strong support around 92,000. From yesterday's overall performance, it first formed a downward trend, creating a panic atmosphere of falling prices at high levels. However, exactly two hours after the evening session, a rebound occurred, and the final candlestick formed a spinning top pattern, indicating that the subsequent downside space is very limited.
Yesterday there was big news that the US government plans to sell BTC from Silk Road, causing immediate panic in the market, with short-term panic emotions surging. Coupled with the previous rapid market rise, it is currently in a repair phase, and some funds have withdrawn to hedge.
So what should we do next? Will Bitcoin continue to fall? What to do if stuck?
Bitcoin's internal adjustment: the black line is the first part of the adjustment, the blue line is the second part, the red line is the third part, and the red line is not a motive wave.
Excluding altcoins and looking at Bitcoin, it has actually shown a very strong horizontal adjustment so far, using time to exchange for space. In a bullish market trend, such a head-and-shoulders pattern has a higher probability of being a continuation rather than a top.
The MACD indicator at the daily level has completed a bottom divergence. The complete chart is as follows:
I believe the upcoming market can expect a rebound. Whether it is a rebound or a reversal depends on how the upper resistance level performs.
Small level resistance at 97,000 and 98,500;
Large level resistance at 102,000 and 105,000;
Ethereum follows Bitcoin, overall still oscillating within the upper box. If this rebound or rise, as shown, cannot break through the upper edge of the box, I will temporarily give up on trading.
Although he may break through and reach the stars and the sea, the time cost is also a cost, and the emotional cost is also a cost. Holding Bitcoin makes me feel very good; I won't want to chat with my grandma just because I switched to Ethereum.
Do you all remember the brother who was stuck a while ago?
This week-long short on ETH finally concluded with a profit of 3,651,000 USD!
Doubting the older brother, understanding the older brother, but unfortunately cannot become the older brother.
Compared to Ethereum, SOL is currently very weak, which surprises me. The ecosystem is thriving with MEME and AI AGENT, so why is SOL's price so sluggish? This is already the second test of the daily MA120 level.
A few days ago, I mentioned the strong defense of the 220 Air Force at the support-resistance conversion point; the strategy is the same as Ethereum. This rebound or reversal, if it can't outperform Bitcoin, decisively clear the positions, affecting the mood.
The actual effects of Trump's inauguration and the first hundred days of new policies will affect market expectations. We cannot accurately estimate Trump's measures after taking office, but we know that Trump has a deep control over the MAGA faction. As long as he doesn't make foolish decisions, we can expect a nearly two-year period of political stability. Thus, the broad bull market could last for two years.
Next, let's talk about the anticipated altcoin season. The arrival of the altcoin season has prerequisites: total buying volume > number of targets * market capitalization.
With the diffusion of technology and the lowering of listing thresholds, the number of targets in the market is approaching infinity. This means that only when the leading projects in certain sectors receive excessive attention will excessive funds enter and drive up substantial multiples of gains. Under so many limiting conditions, it is destined to be very difficult to achieve astronomical gains in such markets, especially for small funds seeking wealth in large exchanges.
The on-chain level 1.5 market seems to become the only option for getting rich quickly.
However, the blockchain also has its disadvantages; astronomical gains naturally correspond to many zero-value coins. From a narrative perspective, one coin can rise to 1, as great scholars will argue for you after success, while the capital's strength and purpose behind it are the zeros after the 1. As for how many zeros there are, it can only be analyzed step by step, involving deep research and analysis. This is the only way to increase the probability of success.
