Yesterday (9th), we learned from the well-known KOL db on Twitter that the United States has been approved to sell nearly 70,000 bitcoins (about 6.5 billion US dollars) seized from the dark web Silk Road. This news has once again triggered panic in the market. This morning (10th), Bitcoin fell to $91,200, setting a new low since December 5 last year.
Analyst: Even if it is sold, it will not be dumped in the secondary market
First of all, the selling pressure of $6.5 billion in Bitcoin is indeed very great, but on the other hand, this is also like a slap in the face to the incoming Trump, because last year he promised not to sell any Bitcoin once he took office, and even planned to establish a Bitcoin reserve strategy.
However, from the perspective of market impact, analyst Phyrex mentioned in an analysis released yesterday (9th) that in fact, the transfer of power between the Biden administration and Trump has not been fully completed, and this sell-off was actually a decision made by the Biden administration, and Trump is powerless to do anything about it.
Additionally, Phyrex noted that the DOJ typically sells Bitcoin through over-the-counter (OTC) transactions, so this will not put too much pressure on the secondary market.
In fact, the U.S. Department of Justice has always handled Bitcoin through OTC. For example, the 50,000 Bitcoins they recovered from the hacker attack in 2023 were sold in batches through OTC. As early as 2014, Silk Road's 29,000 Bitcoins were also sold through auctions, which had little direct impact on the secondary market.
OTC trading refers to trading that is not conducted through public exchanges, but is privately negotiated with counterparties such as banks, institutions, or even individual investors. Therefore, this method has little impact on price fluctuations in the secondary market.
And it can be speculated that those who participate in the auction are usually not ordinary small retail investors. They are more likely to be long-term investors rather than short-term speculators. Therefore, for the market, it may not be bad news to worry about when the Department of Justice will sell these bitcoins.
CryptoQuant analyst: Technical indicators suggest Bitcoin has not yet reached the peak of this bull market
CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain pointed out in an article published yesterday (9th) that although the market has recently experienced a correction, according to technical indicators, Bitcoin has not yet reached the peak of this bull market.
He mentioned that according to past bull market cycles, when the MVRV 100-day moving average indicator reaches 3, it usually means that the bull market has reached its top. However, the current indicator has only reached 2.14.
Therefore, he believes that Bitcoin may still be several months away from the top of this bull market.
