Bitcoin now has strong support near 92,000. Yesterday's trend first slowly fell, bringing a panic of falling from a high position, but in the last two hours of the night, there was a sudden rebound, and the final closing line was a spindle line. This pattern shows a problem - the room for further decline is actually very limited.
There was a big news yesterday that the US government was going to sell the Bitcoin on the Silk Road. The market was instantly in chaos and panic spread in the short term. In addition, the market had risen too fast before and was now entering a correction period, so a lot of funds were withdrawn before the risk aversion.
So what to do next? Will Bitcoin continue to fall? What if I get stuck?
From Bitcoin's adjustments, the black line is the first part of the adjustment, the blue line is the second part, and the red line is the third part. It is important to note that the red line is not a driving wave.
If we look solely at Bitcoin, it is currently undergoing a very strong horizontal adjustment, which belongs to a trend that exchanges time for space. In a bull market, such shoulder patterns are more likely to indicate a continuation signal rather than a top reversal signal.
The daily MACD indicator has already shown a bottom divergence, and the complete line chart has been drawn:
I think the upcoming market is likely to see a rebound. However, whether it is a rebound or a reversal still depends on how the upper resistance levels perform.
The smaller pressure levels are at 97,000 and 98,500; the larger pressure levels are at 102,000 and 105,000.
Ethereum is now basically following Bitcoin, still oscillating within that upper range. For this wave of rebound or rise, if it can't break through the upper edge of the range, then I will temporarily not participate.
Although it may break through, it could also soar, but the time cost and mindset cost are also costs. If I hold Bitcoin and have a good mindset, I won't be looking for my grandmother to chat with me because I've switched to Ethereum.
Compared to Ethereum, Solana's current performance is indeed somewhat weak, which confuses me. Clearly, projects like MEME and AI AGENT are thriving in the ecosystem, so why is Solana's price so sluggish? This is already the second time testing the daily MA120 level.
The 220 level I mentioned earlier, where support and resistance conversion occurred, has such strong defense from the bears, which is really unexpected. Strategically, like Ethereum, this wave of rebound or reversal, if Solana cannot outperform Bitcoin, then clear positions decisively, as mindset is the most important.
Let's take a look at the situation of altcoins.
Currently, most altcoins are following the market's oscillation, with an overall decline of about 10%.
From the market sentiment perspective, the fear and greed index has dropped to 43, indicating that people's sentiment is quite low, and voices bearish on the market are increasing.
However, I don't think we need to worry too much; the long-term upward trend is still there.
Recently, I've seen a lot of discussions about the delayed 'altcoin season', and everyone is quite confused about what exactly counts as an altcoin season. I would also like to share my views:
First of all, I'm not quite sure how everyone understands 'altcoin season'.
From September 2023 to March 2024, does this wave count as an altcoin season? BTC rose from 25,000 to 71,000, almost tripling.
Does this wave from early August to the end of December count as an altcoin season? BTC rose from 50,000 to 108,000, a doubling.
Why was the altcoin wave in March 2024 so intense? Because BTC's main upward wave had just started, and altcoins had been in a bear market for a year.
Thus, the secondary market has SEI, TIA, WLD, OM, inscription series, and other more than ten times dark horses emerging, still focusing on the new, new coins, new narratives.
This wave since August is different; first, the funds are more diversified, and BTC's rise is relatively small.
So, there aren't many dark horses emerging from altcoins; only SUI, XRP, PUNT, ACT, and a few old DeFi projects have performed several times, but can this be considered an altcoin market?
From a macro perspective, various funds are flowing into BTC through compliant channels, which is the trend for the future. Therefore, these newly entering institutions generally will not touch altcoins unless they are involved in specific projects. As a result, the altcoin market has not seen much new blood flowing in; it is still mainly operated by retail investors and speculative funds within the circle.
I think the so-called 'altcoin season' now may not necessarily be a fixed point in time but rather a stage market. We cannot always use the markets of 2017 and 2021 to understand the current and future altcoin markets. The future altcoin market may be like March or December 2024, where there might be some dark horse projects, but the overall market size and explosive power still depend on BTC's rise.
If BTC drops to around 70,000, grinds for half a year, and then rises to 180,000, I believe the altcoin market will replicate the wave from March 2024, with more dark horse projects, and retail investors can earn more.
So, what exactly counts as 'altcoin season' is not important; the key is how many opportunities you can seize in each market wave and how much profit you can make.
Today's fan Q&A:
Is there still hope for MOODENG?
Its trend has already shown that the original support has turned into resistance. If it were me, after breaking below the 0.32 area, I would no longer hold it.
From a swing trading perspective, unless it can regain above 0.32, I will not pay attention to it anymore.
Where are the support and resistance levels for Render?
Currently, the 6.6 area has not been broken, so I still view it as an upward structure. The support and upper target price (TP) have been marked on the chart for everyone to check.
What are your thoughts on NEAR?
I have always been optimistic about NEAR; the backing capital is also very strong. As a representative of Layer 1, its overall performance is also among the best in the industry.
This drop is about 20%. Although the 4.5 position I wanted was not reached, there is significant support at the price of 5. If it rebounds at this position, it can at least rise to around 5.8.
The coins that rebounded the most yesterday were led by HYPER, followed by SWARMS.
The LP range for SWARMS is 150 million to 450 million; as long as the price is within this range, I feel very comfortable. For short-term LP profits or losses, I actually don't care much.
After a big rise in blue-chip stocks, they usually enter a phase of range oscillation, and this logic has allowed me to profit many times.
Everyone, don’t learn from me; mainly, I have no significant pressure on these coins. My SWARMS were also given to me by stockings, and my cost for stockings was about 18M.
Right now, I don't want to clear my positions or increase them, so I can only enjoy about 4% LP earnings daily.
Although AI16Z has a large market cap, it is more suitable for large capital operations.
In the AI Agent track, every market downturn is an opportunity to pick good projects and the best time to exchange garbage coins for quality coins. Those coins that pretend to be gold will forever be buried in the sands of the market. Therefore, the upcoming theme will be to eliminate the false and retain the true.
Now let's turn our attention to THE.
Secondary bottom test, it has stabilized and shows a rebound trend, with a good cost-performance ratio; it can be considered for entry.
Initial position: Current price - 1.2
Replenishment: 1.1 - 1.08
Target ①: Around 1.36
Target ②: 1.5 - 1.6
If you're worried, you can also wait for the data to come out tonight before evaluating.
For all the shared coins, unless specifically stated, the maximum hard stop loss is 20%. If you replenish and it returns to the average price area, you can consider selling half.
If you hold these three types of altcoins, you will definitely cry in the bathroom:
1. For the L2 sector, such as ARB, Metis, and Manta, the drop from the high has exceeded 70%.
2. For the inscription sector, such as ORDIS and SATS, the drop from the high has exceeded 75%.
3. For SOL系MEME, such as WIF and POPCAT, the drop from the high has also exceeded 70%.
NEIRO, ACT, PNUT, the three major retail investments.
Do you have any of these? If you gather these three, congratulations on becoming the most distinguished person!
Finally, let's summarize the important news recently:
1. The metaverse project AVA has been performing well recently; it is transforming into a personal AI agent in the metaverse, with a market cap of $250 million.
2. The AI meme sector has also seen some coins surge, like LLM and Pippin. LLM is a parody of AI16z's AI meme, while Pippin is transitioning from AI meme to framework platform. It seems that under the large track of AI, projects related to framework platforms and AI memes are more likely to achieve large market values, similar to the logic of public chains and memes.
3. In terms of gaming frameworks, Stealth has also seen significant growth. This project is transitioning from Web2 games to AI game chain transformation, with 2 million daily active users on the Roblox platform and a partnership with AI16z's Eliza platform.
4. The meme coin Kekius has also risen recently. Musk has started to promote it again. Kekius is a meme coin on the ETH chain, which previously dropped 80% from its high, but its trading volume has consistently ranked among the top three meme coins on the ETH chain. Will there be a second wave like Would?
