Master talks about hot topics:
When the market fell yesterday, many people pointed fingers at the Silk Road, calling it the culprit. But in the capital market, any news that can be quantified is not considered a real bearish factor.
During the grayscale sell-off and the Mentougou liquidation, didn’t the market just stir for a while and then pass? What truly scares people is the unknown. Once the cards are on the table, the panic is almost over.
Let's talk about tonight's non-farm data; many people think there will be significant movement, but it's actually not that exaggerated. The market always acts in advance; the real drop has already been digested in the previous days.
The key to non-farm data is whether to raise interest rates in January, but the December meeting has already released signals not to raise rates, so there's not much novelty in this discussion. Today's data may cause slight market fluctuations, but let's skip the dramatic waves; it's still as the master expressed yesterday in the article: it won't explode but also won't crash.
Last night, Bitcoin took advantage of the US stock market being closed to hold up a rebound in the Asian session. After three consecutive daily bearish candles, a rebound is almost the expected scenario. This rebound came with volume, clearly not a façade; it's a breath during market adjustments.
Regarding tonight's non-farm data, I tend to remain optimistic about the rebound in the 9.5K-9.6K range; after all, the bulls' resilience is still present. If you ask me why? The master just wants to say: the bull market is still here, the bull market is still here!
Speaking of which, everyone might recall last October. At that time, Bitcoin fell below 59K, and the market was overwhelmingly pessimistic, with countless calls for a bear market. Some KOLs even called a target price of 20K, yet a month later, Bitcoin broke through 80K.
In just over a month, the price could double. Compared to now, the situation is much more optimistic. It has risen 57% and only consolidated for two months, so is it too early to say a bear market has arrived?
If it really falls back into a bear market, it at least has to go back to 59K, right? And now the bottom of the 65K range is still stable, so why rush to conclusions? Not to mention next year's halving cycle, which has historically never sent the wrong bullish signal. The last halving saw the price double six months later; there's no need to elaborate; everyone knows this!
Master looks at the trend:
Resistance level reference.
First resistance level: 94200.
Second resistance level: 93500.
Support level reference:
First support level: 92400.
Second support level: 91700.
Today's suggestion:
After maintaining a rapid downward trend last night, Bitcoin still hopes to find an opportunity for a trend reversal in the short term. From a technical analysis perspective, a bullish divergence has formed, and a rebound may occur in the short term, while maintaining a consolidation trend in the 92.4~93.5K range is particularly important.
After a short-term adjustment at the first resistance level, if a pullback support area is formed and the low points are raised, a very short-term rebound trading opportunity can be attempted. After reaching the first resistance, a reasonable pullback target is expected to be 92.4K.
If an adjustment occurs after hitting the upper resistance, and it pulls back to the first support level and stabilizes, it can be viewed as a reasonable pullback, with 91.7K considered a short-term bottom support. Currently, a V-shaped reversal is not recommended; if the price oscillates in the 92.4~93.5K range and forms a consolidation, it will create better conditions for further rebounds.
Currently, if the market fails to form an obvious long bullish candle with significant trading volume after multiple large fluctuations, heavy selling pressure is expected above (i.e., a lot of trapped positions). When attempting rebound trading, it is essential to maintain a short-term trading strategy, and it is recommended to quickly enter and exit to take profits in time to reduce risk.
1.10 Master’s wave pre-positioning:
Long entry reference: light position long in the 90600-91055 range with a small loss. If it spikes to around 88800, go long directly. Target: 93500-94200.
Short entry reference: light position short in the 95400-96050 range. Target: 94200-93500.
