The price is determined by the supply and demand of the underlying asset and capital;

The influx of funds into the underlying asset is governed by two factors:

1. Whether the "capital" available for speculation in the market is increasing,

Whether it aligns with the model of rising tides lifting all boats.

The source of capital available for speculation is determined by global monetary policy. They mainly manipulate it through the speed of capital deployment + central bank benchmark interest rates.

Therefore, in a sense, price is a monetary phenomenon. A monetary phenomenon controlled by the Federal Reserve.

2. Psychology, or what is called "expectation."

When the market expects the underlying asset to rise significantly, the owners of the underlying asset will be reluctant to sell (unwilling to sell cheaply), which temporarily reduces the supply of chips (actively locking positions). Market participants (capital providers) will try every means to raise funds to enter the market, even if the Federal Reserve remains passive (not injecting money or even raising interest rates).

The interplay of these two factors creates price trends. Once a trend is formed, it must complete the trend before entering the next opposing trend. The reason is that the collective psychological change process of market participants is needed, which can be referred to in "The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind."

It is also for this reason that there is a famous saying in the investment circle:

"Prices will only move in the direction of least resistance until momentum drops to zero."