Will Bitcoin fall further? What should we do next?
The bad news has finally come out; with the bad news hitting the market, the current drop should be considered a pause. The main factor is that the 6.5 billion USD worth of Bitcoin seized from Silk Road may now be released onto the market for sale, which is a bearish factor. But what’s most worrying is if the market keeps falling and no one knows why. Today, the US stock market is closed, mainly to commemorate former President Carter.
Last night, the entire market fell almost all day, until it began to accelerate downwards at 1 AM, with Ethereum dropping from 3300 to 3200, and then recovering all losses within an hour, forming a temporary bottom. Yesterday, Ethereum dropped about 10%, while altcoins overall fell by 25%, almost erasing this week's gains. The situation for retail investors is typical: they earn a little and then lose it back, and just when they see hope, there’s another sharp drop. The market makers want retail investors to develop the habit of selling at highs.
However, every pullback in a bull market is an opportunity; the targets for increasing positions can be prioritized on leading stocks from various sectors since rebounds usually happen the fastest. Currently, popular sectors include AI, DeFi, and memes, but the trend in the secondary market needs to stabilize. New good projects are emerging daily in the primary market, so it’s worth spending more time studying them in the future.
Let’s first look at BNB, which has performed well in the past 24 hours, with a smaller drop compared to BTC, expected to consolidate between 680 and 720. The platform has also released some positive news, along with airdrops and lock-ups, so its price will be a bit stronger.
Now for ETH, which is a bit weak; it is expected to fluctuate between 3250 and 3550. Why? Mainly because during yesterday's crash, ETFs massively reduced their holdings, leading to a cascade effect. However, if it falls further, ETH's volatility should be similar to BTC, and the downside potential is limited.
Today's technical analysis of BTC: From the candlestick chart, the 1-hour level is rising, the 4-hour level is building a bottom, the 12-hour level is falling, and the daily level is also falling. Today's resistance level is at 96800, with a support level at 92500 USD.
Let’s take another look at the situation of altcoins.
This wave of Bitcoin's pullback has been really tough for altcoins; almost all the top 300 altcoins haven't risen.
Most of the stablecoins are rising, which also means that altcoins are now in a general downtrend, especially the older altcoins in the secondary market, which did not benefit much when they rose but fell even more when they dropped, completely unlike the AI agents projects.
Even though Binance launched contracts like swarms, cookie, and alch last night, which directly brought down the entire AI agents sector, it should be noted that these AI agents projects have recently multiplied several times, and this pullback is just a minor adjustment.
Even though the entire sector was retracing last night, some projects still brought huge profits to on-chain users, such as catg and cnjr, which brought many users returns of several dozens of times. New AI projects like max and buzz have also emerged rapidly, quickly entering the discussion circle of 100 million blue-chip projects. Now, almost all the profit-making effects across the network are concentrated in the AI agents sector.
AI agents are definitely the main force in this round, and even in the next few rounds of the market. It can even be said that the infrastructure and applications of the crypto market over the past decade will be reshaped in the AI world. The current public chain framework can be seen as the future infrastructure.
In the future, various ecosystems will gradually transition towards AI, and the participation methods of retail investors will also be tiered. For instance, the pump internal market is like the previous IDOs; when the internal market ends, it is equivalent to entering the secondary market. Those with small funds and a lot of time can rush into the primary market, while those with large funds looking for certainty can rush into the secondary market. After all, once you make money, you still have to return to Bitcoin, which is the ultimate principle; converting to Bitcoin is always the correct investment strategy.
Today's fan Q&A:
What is the entry take-profit point for T?
From the daily candlestick chart, it has now completed the pullback after the breakout and is currently rebounding.
You can set your phased profit target at the previous high point, which is around 0.041.
What is the entry position for ai16z?
Looking at the daily chart, the dense chip area is at the bottom, so you can patiently wait for a rebound in the price in the 0.915 and 0.5 regions to enter.
What I don’t understand is what’s going on with the down shadow on the right? I’m using gmgn to watch the market.
What will happen with SUI next?
The current situation is that after the price fell below support, it rebounded to the original support area and encountered resistance, then started to decline again.
I personally think this is the time to start reducing positions and taking some profits. If the market really falls below the 92000 region, it would be wise to look for a pullback opportunity around 3.6 for SUI.
Is it better to go heavy or light?
My answer is, what suits you is the best!
First: your capability. If you are very good at entering the market and can often get in at the explosive point, then of course you should seize the opportunity to go heavy. If your entry ability is weak, then it is better to go light, with wider stop-losses being more beneficial; otherwise, you will keep getting stopped out.
Second: the size of your desire. If your desire is large, your position must be heavier; if your desire is small, your position should be lighter.
Third: your risk tolerance. For a single trade, how much loss can you accept? If your tolerance is high, your position must be high; if you cannot accept a significant drawdown, your position must be light.
Now let’s turn our attention to PNUT.
Looking at the candlestick chart, the 4-hour line has already shown signs of stopping the decline, forming a clear piercing pattern. This pattern usually indicates that the bearish pressure is weakening and bulls may start to fight back.
Currently, a strong support level has formed around 0.6. Due to the panic sentiment in the short-term market leading to overselling, it once broke below support, but now the price has begun to recover and market sentiment is gradually improving.
If the market can stabilize, PNUT is expected to restart its upward trend and may welcome larger gains. It is advisable to closely monitor the stability of the 0.6 support level and subsequent changes in trading volume as a reference for further operations.
Let’s take another look at ACT.
The bigger the storm, the more expensive the fish; I entered at 0.295, and my target price is initially set at 0.35!
Currently, the market is quite volatile, but each drop is actually an opportunity to buy the dip. What is your cost price? Most people probably haven’t broken even yet...
Finally, let’s summarize the important news recently:
1. The on-chain AI meme coin LLM has recently skyrocketed. LLM is the AI meme coin that counters the AI16Z concept. KOL HIM mentioned that it is to benchmark Fartcoin, and as a result, it directly surged to a market value of 100 million in one day.
2. The old coin XRP has recently risen, and their CEO even met with Trump.
3. The on-chain AI projects Buzz, Pippin, and Sentai are all experiencing significant gains. Buzz is an AI focused on DeFi, collaborating with Zerebro to work on infrastructure. Pippin was originally a meme coin but is now transitioning to a framework, with its GitHub activity skyrocketing. Sentai is the AI DePIN project launched by the old coin IoTex. Last time, during the inscription market, IoTex also released inscriptions, making it a professional at riding the wave.