The era of Trump 2.0 is coming, and global capital markets are panicking again

With only two weeks left before Trump 2.0 takes office again, global capital markets have once again fallen into volatility under the influence of his potential policies.

On the evening of January 6, the global market moved significantly:

European and American stock markets surged, with the FTSE China A50 index soaring by more than 1%, the U.S. dollar index plummeting, and non-U.S. currencies and the yuan rising simultaneously, with the latter jumping 300 points.

This fluctuation stems from the "Washington Post" citing three people familiar with the matter, saying that Trump's team is adjusting the tariff policy promised during his campaign and switching to more precise tariff measures targeting national and economic security areas.

The Trump team's tariff policy will have a profound impact on the global economy. The Washington Post report suggested that Trump may follow Biden's "small courtyard, high wall" strategy, which is similar to "attacking the heart first" at a macro level, using industrial and tariff policies to divide neighbors, allies and internal industrial forces. , allowing the United States to defeat them one by one.

At the micro level, this strategy is similar to "encircling three and missing one". Instead of adopting a total blockade, it induces other countries to break through in specific industrial fields so that they can ambush in preset areas.

For example, the U.S. Department of Defense recently added companies such as Tencent and CATL to the 1260H list, while also excluding some companies, which reflects the flexibility and controllability of this strategy. Sanctions are also expected to continue to be rolled out in the final days of the Biden administration, but with room for maneuver left open for manipulation.

However, Trump’s strategy is obviously different. He does not tend to negotiate with companies one by one. Instead, he hopes to bundle all companies through tariff policies and conduct direct transactions with one representative to maximize benefits. Therefore, Trump may keep the full threat of tariffs ahead of negotiations, like Liu Bei in the Battle of Yiling. For more information, please call 【校长-交易学院】