According to the cyclical patterns of the cryptocurrency market, we may currently be in the later stage of the fourth bull market. Looking back at history, each cycle lasts for 4 years: 3 years of bear market, followed by 1 year of bull market.

Characteristics of a bull market:

• First 8 months: Slow fluctuations, market adjustments, gradual capital allocation.

• Last 2 months: Rapid rise, market sentiment explodes, forming the main upward wave.

• Final 2 months: Frenzied topping, sentiment reaches its peak, but risks also increase accordingly.

Current assessment:

• The bull market started in October 2023, and we are currently in a mid-stage consolidation period, with the real explosion yet to come.

• Based on historical patterns, the explosive period is expected from February to May 2024, with the main upward wave completing most of its gains in just a few months.

• The entire bull market may end around July 2025, followed by a bear market.

Market logic:

1. The essence of rapid rises and falls: The rise in the cryptocurrency market is to create a wealth effect and attract more capital to enter; the fall is to clear the bubbles, eliminate worthless projects and speculators.

2. The significance of cyclical patterns: The 4-year wait is to seize that 3-4 month main upward wave. If this phase is missed, profits can instantly drop to zero, or even incur losses.

Survival rules in a bear market:

• In a bear market, apart from BTC and ETH, other assets are unlikely to transcend the cycle.

• BTC and ETH are the cornerstones of the entire market and the only assets worth holding long-term, while most other projects are merely runners-up.

In summary, the cryptocurrency market is highly efficient and规律性极强, each cycle has its inherent logic and operational rhythm. Seizing the main upward wave is the key to truly enjoying the cyclical dividends.

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