Recently, overseas ETFs have once again surged in popularity. Due to the tight quotas for QDII funds, many QDII ETFs have seen significant price increases in the market, with some assets experiencing a premium rate as high as 40%.

Even setting aside the premiums, in recent years overseas assets have shown a low correlation with A-shares. QDII ETFs tracking indices such as the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Nikkei have also performed quite well in terms of net asset value growth over the past year. Global diversified investment is gradually becoming one of the consensus among investors.

Recently, a QDII ETF targeting emerging markets in Asia—the Emerging Asia ETF (subscription code: 520583)—will officially go on sale next Monday, providing investors who are interested in overseas markets with a new tool.

From the perspective of the underlying assets tracked by the index, this ETF tracks the SGX Emerging Asia Select 50 Index, which covers the 50 largest and most liquid companies in India, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, and can be simply understood as growth-oriented assets.

As of the end of November 2024, based on the weight of the listing regions, the proportions for India, Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia are 48.9%, 20.7%, 16.6%, and 13.9%, respectively, making it the first ETF in China that can invest in India with a relatively high proportion. Given that the holding of Indian assets accounts for nearly half, based on the trends since February 2023, this index has shown a high correlation with MSCI India, performing well over the past two years, and is expected to rise again after recent consolidation.

This is mainly due to emerging countries like India currently possessing advantages such as a demographic dividend and industrial upgrades, with GDP growth rates ranking among the top globally. As corporate profits maintain a high growth trend, foreign investment is likely to continue to be attracted. According to predictions from the Reserve Bank of India, the overall GDP growth rate of India is expected to reach as high as 6.4% by 2025. Furthermore, due to the overall tight quotas for QDII, it is expected that relief will not come until around mid-year. Therefore, it is foreseeable that the high premiums on QDII ETFs will be difficult to eliminate in the short term. Recently, even the relatively niche Saudi ETF has started to be speculated on for premiums.

Thus, at this point in time, subscribing to QDII ETFs like the Emerging Asia ETF, which is expected to have high premiums on its first day of listing, could be a high-probability arbitrage opportunity. For investors optimistic about overseas growth-oriented assets and speculating on premiums, it would be advisable to participate when subscriptions open next Monday.