BTC Market Dynamic Analysis

The decline of BTC was anticipated, but the speed of it exceeded expectations. Initially, a fluctuating decline was expected, but it unexpectedly followed the steps of the U.S. stock market closely, showing strong downward momentum. When opening BTC short positions, we did not choose to short altcoins because BTC's trend is relatively more certain.

1. From the daily chart perspective, BTC has once again retraced to the MA60 moving average, marking the second touch at this position. If it cannot hold at this level, the ascending triangle formation will face the risk of being broken again (the last time it was broken at the MA30). Once this formation is broken, it will mean that the current uptrend has stagnated and been damaged, potentially leading to a larger level of correction (such as MA120), gradually shifting from a trending market to a fluctuating market, increasing the duration of the adjustment, which is obviously not a good sign for the market.

2. Currently, BTC is still in an overall adjustment phase that began from the 108353 point. Among them, the rise from 91530 points to 102724 points constitutes the second part of the adjustment, while the current phase is the third part. Due to the strong upward momentum in the second phase, we speculate that the downward amplitude in the third part may not be too deep. If BTC can stabilize above the positions indicated by the first two red circles in the chart, it will be considered a normal adjustment range. However, if BTC breaks below this range and continues to drop to around 86000 points, the market may need a longer time for recovery.

In light of the current market situation, we have reduced some altcoin positions, and due to the rapid decline of BTC, we have chosen to observe temporarily, waiting for the right opportunity to gradually re-enter. For the spot portion, we continue to adopt a passive strategy, maintaining patience and calmness.

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