Continuing from the previous point
Assuming two scenarios
1. The bull market peak is nine months away, which is inferred from historical data as the most likely peak time
2. The bull market price is 180,000, which is derived from a comprehensive data analysis as a higher peak price
Therefore, the process will definitely be bumpy, and at least two or three major corrections are needed in between, with a possibility of a weekly-level major correction
This is the healthy way to go
Because from the perspective of the macro environment, liquidity does not support a super bull market
It requires repeated acquisition of liquidity to further drive price increases
So
There are still many opportunities, no need to rush
If it goes directly to above 150,000, or even 180,000
Then the bull market has ended early
It has peaked 🤪
Alright, then at the peak of 180,000
The bull peak in 2017 was 200,000, the bear bottom in 2018 was 30,000, at 1.5 times
The bull peak in 2021 was 690,000, the bear bottom in 2022 was 150,000, at 2 times
This time the bear bottom is at 3 times, a bit higher
Then the price will also return to 50,000
So currently, the price of 100,000 definitely carries a significant risk
Be cautious when buying the dip, do not gamble with high multiples
The reasoning is here
That’s all!