The cryptocurrency market, aside from a significant rise in AI Agents over the weekend, saw most other coins maintain a narrow trading range. Bitcoin hovered between $97,000 and $99,000, while Ethereum fluctuated between $3,500 and $3,700. Bitcoin's market share showed signs of stabilizing and slightly recovering, indicating that altcoins are underperforming compared to Bitcoin.

Weekends typically see lower market volatility, and as European and American investors resume normal trading days, as long as Bitcoin does not drop below last night's low of $97,200, there is a possibility of challenging the $100,000 mark again in the short term. Currently at $99,400, it is indeed sprinting towards $100,000.

On the other hand, Ethereum (ETH) has closely followed Bitcoin's trend in recent days but seems to be stronger. As of the time of writing, it is reported at $3,648 and still fluctuating within a consolidation range.

January BTC trend prediction

Looking ahead, there will be a positive start at the beginning of the year, followed by a breakthrough and stabilization at $100,000 before Trump's inauguration; however, the market may retreat again before the FOMC meeting on January 29.

This week's financial events to watch focus on the December Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the non-farm payroll report released on Friday.

Although the market generally believes that the dot plot from the December meeting released hawkish signals, the meeting minutes will provide a more intuitive understanding of the Federal Reserve officials' views on the U.S. economic outlook and whether they believe the risks of economic growth slowing are rising. Especially the Fed's assessment of inflation prospects and whether they think inflation pressures are easing.

On the other hand, economists currently predict that the U.S. non-farm payrolls for December will increase by 154,000, a slowdown compared to the previous value of 227,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%.

Are altcoins struggling to rise?

From January 2024 to mid-November, Bitcoin's market capitalization rose from 50% to 60% of the overall cryptocurrency market, creating significant headwinds for altcoins.

Although the dominance indicator briefly fell to 53% over three weeks (which sparked hopes for an altcoin season), it quickly rebounded to nearly 58% and then consolidated around 55%. This consolidation highlights Bitcoin's enduring dominance as the main driving force in the cryptocurrency market while also signaling potential challenges for altcoins—unless the Bitcoin dominance indicator declines again.

We are currently in the mid-stage of a bull market, with on-chain liquidity experiencing unprecedented growth, as major public chains strive to capture on-site liquidity. The Desci, AI, Depin, and RWA sectors have begun a new narrative aimed at attracting new entry capital.

What can we position ourselves for in the upcoming bull market cycle?

The first is the AI sector, where most current AI is still meme concepts without standout major projects emerging. A hot topic throughout the year will definitely lead to a breakout project that will create a wealth effect.

The second is the DeFi sector, which is essential as infrastructure in a bull market. Especially now, after Trump's ascendance, the current planning is very favorable for DeFi's development, particularly for projects that generate revenue, such as AAVE and UNI. The Trump family's continuous investment in DeFi assets is strong evidence of this.

Secondly, regarding the RWA sector, institutions like BlackRock are accelerating their positioning. For traditional assets, it offers a new settlement method, allowing illiquid assets to be arbitraged or rapidly settled. The influx of funds brought by ETFs has clearly demonstrated the interest of outside funds in the cryptocurrency market. Once the trend of RWA explodes, the funds involved will be unimaginable. Compliance and practicality will be the main themes of this bull market.

Currently, it is not the best time to enter the market, but it is also quite acceptable, and one can plan to position themselves accordingly.