The market is actually building strength now; temporary consolidation may not be a bad thing, it could be the calm before the storm. Bitcoin has been stuck in the 96000 to 100000 range these days, hardly moving, and a 5% fluctuation in the coin circle is quite common.
Right now, both bulls and bears are at odds, neither wants to take a step back first. There is still quite a bit of good news, and market confidence remains stable, likely looking for support after the previous surge. In the short term, Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate within this price range.
BNB is expected to fluctuate between 680 and 740, waiting for Bitcoin to give direction. The bears probably won’t rush into action now, so we just need to be patient; the exciting parts are still ahead.
As for ETH, it is performing quite strongly now, moving steadily in the 3500 to 3800 range. If Bitcoin continues to consolidate, Ethereum may also initiate its own market.
Now let’s talk about today’s technical analysis of BTC: From the candlestick perspective, the 1-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily charts are all in an upward state. The intraday resistance is at 101200, and the support is at 96100 USD.
Let’s take a look at the situation of altcoins again.
Among altcoins, the Move public chain Sui and Move are performing the strongest.
Sui's market cap has surpassed 50 billion USD, about half of Solana's, and it's now on our investment list.
This year, American public chains may become the main focus, with Rust representing Solana and Move representing Sui.
Currently, the TVL growth rate of the Sui chain is very fast, soaring from 350 million USD to 850 million USD in less than two months.
However, it should be noted that Move will unlock 50 million chips this week, which may bring short-term risks.
Recently, some AI agent projects on the chain, such as Virtual, AI16z, Arc, Swarm, seem to be in a pullback.
Yesterday, Sun said on Twitter to 'ALL IN AI', and I immediately reminded everyone in the group to pay attention to short-term pullback risks.
Sun is almost like the 'lamp' of the industry; every time he calls out, it’s basically the short-term peak of that track.
The current pullback is just the right time to increase positions; profits are made when prices fall, and risks arise when prices rise.
Today I also updated the bottom-fishing points in the group; everyone doesn’t need to rush to bottom-fish all at once, you can place orders in batches and see if there will be any surprises.
Recently, the AI Agent track has surged wildly, and friends are asking: can we still get on board?
From the current trend, the AI AGENT track is developing rapidly and has just started, with various VCs, large investors, and developers continuously entering.
The popularity of this track has surpassed meme coins, whether in terms of funds, developers, or market attention.
I think the AI AGENT track may very well experience a major explosion this year. So my view is: don’t hesitate, keep going. This track could bring 10x opportunities!
Now various AI Agents are coming in waves, it's truly dazzling. As an ordinary person, how should we choose in this new track filled with opportunities yet full of traps?
Now I’ll share my on-chain investment thoughts:
1. Recently, I've seen many people almost clear out all their holdings in mainstream CEX coins and go all-in on the AI Agent on-chain track. While this shows confidence and recognition of the new trend, I believe this approach is not advisable.
During the AI MEME phase, the on-chain AI field can still maintain information asymmetry due to some mainstream groups' 'bias'. However, as we enter the AI infrastructure stage, this information asymmetry has significantly decreased. Now, many geek developers, technical researchers, and even some venture capital institutions have begun to pay attention to the emerging field of AI Agents.
This means that the days of simply following the trend and making easy money are over. On-chain investment is now a game full of risks and opportunities. Going all-in on AI narratives carries very high risks, even potentially greater than entering during the end of the chaotic era and the beginning of the stable era. Therefore, the wisest approach is to gradually adjust your on-chain position to avoid easily going all-in.
2. Regarding the layout of on-chain positions, my suggestion is a strategy of 5 + 4 + 1, detailed as follows:
Large Position:
Choose projects like ai16z, ZEREBRO, $AIXBT, $GOAT, Virtual, etc., which have consensus and are leading projects that have emerged. These projects are like the heavy bets placed on MKR, COMP, UNI, LINK during the DeFi Summer.
Although this approach may miss out on some crazy short-term gains of smaller coins, in the long run, such a steady choice can ensure that you remain competitive in the track. This strategy is mainly about stability, ensuring that your position can survive in future competition.
Medium Position:
You can choose projects like $arc, $REI, $Focai, $ELIZA, $Swarms, $SPORE, $SNAI, $ALCH, $NEUR, which are in the standard technical framework and innovation model competition stage.
If further refined, it can be divided into the following categories: large framework standards > innovative Agent applications > single AI > vertical platform services. The core logic is that large framework standards have the widest applicability and foundational strength, so they have the greatest development space and potential. Single AI may be limited due to its relatively single function. While innovative applications have great potential, they are also fraught with uncertainty, representing a key area that can bring growth.
Small Position:
You can appropriately participate in some small projects that are taking off, such as $MetaV, $stoic, $SYMX, $TAOCAT, $ZAILGO, $POLY, etc. At first glance, these projects may look good, and the short-term market fluctuations are significant, but often these projects have not undergone thorough research and carry a lot of hidden risks. Therefore, these projects are more speculative in nature, and it is recommended to maintain a small position, treating it as a 'gamble'.
From the perspective of the coin circle, attention is wealth, and the snowball effect of AI Agent's attention will continue to strengthen. As more and more funds and resources flow in, the industry will further expand. If we can continue to dig deep in the current direction and continually improve our competitiveness, we will eventually occupy a favorable position in this track.
Fan Q&A:
PNUT When is the right time to enter now?
I entered at around 0.6. If you want to enter, I recommend waiting for the price to break through the 0.79 area before entering for more stability.
Entering now may not be cost-effective. Even if the breakout fails, my cost is low, and I can choose to take profits and exit, while you might have bought at a high position.
If you wait to enter after the breakout, it’s equivalent to having a confirmation of the launch signal, which is relatively a low-entry position, making it easier to set stop-loss.
What do you think of ATOM now?
From the weekly K chart, the price has returned to the upper range, and currently, it is stabilizing at the lower boundary of the range.
If you want to enter, consider making a prediction first to see if the price can rise to the upper boundary of the range, which is at 13.
What do you think of OP now?
I think it’s worth paying attention to. The daily chart shows an increase in volume, and the overall rise is not too high, indicating that it's following the market trend.
Since OP's upgrade last year, there hasn't been any particularly big movements, and the rise in December only reached 2.7. However, none of this affects its future development. Its TVL has always remained at the forefront of the industry.
The only thing to note is that the holding period for OP will be relatively long, and it may not be a project that can yield results in the short term. So, the biggest challenge may be whether you can be patient.
Looking back at the market adjustment before Christmas, many altcoins have once again hit the bottom before rebounding. When seizing the rebound opportunity, don’t forget those days when you were once 'beaten'!
No matter how crazy the market is, taking profits at the right time is essential. Even reducing positions by 10% or 20% is crucial for investors who do not have enough positions.
After all, no one can predict when 'black swans' will arrive; the seasoned investors who have experienced the bloodbath of 312 and 519 know that cashing out at high positions is the way to go.
Current market: Seize the opportunity amidst the changing winds!
Opportunities in a bull market are fleeting; only by maintaining sharp instincts and calm judgment, and planning entry and exit strategies in advance, can one confidently navigate this unpredictable market.
Remember—opportunities always favor those who are prepared. If you dare to take action and are good at locking in profits, you can become a winner in this bull market!
Finally, let’s summarize the important news recently:
1. The Move public chains $sui and $move have both risen. Sui's market cap has exceeded 50 billion USD, quickly catching up to half of Solana's. Move will unlock 5000WU this week.
2. The AI meme ACT has risen and released a series of updates.
3. The old coin Hive is forcing a short squeeze, and the shorting fee has dropped directly to -2%.
4. The Murad series meme coins SPX, GIGA, etc., have also risen, with SPX's market cap reaching 1.5 billion USD.
5. The on-chain AI sector, like $virtual, $ai16z, $arc, $swarms, etc., is currently in a pullback.