Recently, BTC has been steadily rising with the entire market over the past week, and everyone's confidence is gradually recovering. Whether mainstream coins or altcoins, they are almost all quietly increasing. Have you seized the opportunity? I see many friends waiting and ended up missing a good chance. Should we chase in now?
Regarding BTC, I personally predict it will fluctuate between $99,000 and $103,000. This period is its foundational solidification stage. If you don't have a position now, don't impulsively chase high prices; stay calm and wait to buy at a lower point.
Now let's talk about BNB, which is expected to fluctuate between $690 and $730. The new MEGADROP activity has already launched, and everyone can participate; you might have unexpected gains. If it encounters LAUNCHPOOL again, BNB breaking through $730 will be a matter of minutes!
Lastly, let's talk about ETH, which is expected to fluctuate between $3,550 and $3,800 and has a strong trend. Furthermore, institutional holdings are still increasing; what does this indicate? If you have ETH, just continue to hold it.
Now let's take a look at today's BTC technical market analysis: From the candlestick chart, the 1-hour level is down, the 4-hour level is up, the 12-hour level is also up, and the daily level is even more up. Currently, the intraday resistance is at $104,000, and the support is at $100,000.
$100,000 is a new starting point. Some may ask, 'At $100,000, can we still invest?'
But this question is actually wrong!
Some people may have exited before $100,000. It could be because they achieved their goals or felt their positions were already large enough.
Additionally, some people may still be actively increasing their positions after $100,000. It may be because they have enough funds to continue investing, their goals are still far away, or they feel their positions are still not large enough.
For the former, $100,000 is already very expensive, and it's good enough. For the latter, $100,000 might actually be a very cheap price, thinking it's still far from enough. Investment decisions actually depend on your own strength, goals, and holding situation.
When Bitcoin stands at the starting point of $100,000, altcoins (0.1BTC) are at a new starting point of $10,000, small coins (0.01BTC) at $1,000, and microcoins (0.001BTC) at a new starting point of $0.10... In short, just stand at a starting point that is suitable for you.
The Trump family has massively bought into Ethereum! What exactly do they see?
The Trump family's recent purchase of Ethereum, although the market is somewhat pessimistic now, actually has several deep-seated reasons behind it.
1. Focus on medium to long-term potential: Although Ethereum's price is low now, as the 'big brother' of cryptocurrencies, its technology and application areas are very strong. There is still a possibility of rebound in the future. The Trump family may have seen this opportunity and intends to buy in at the low point, waiting for future recovery.
2. Hedging: With increasing global economic uncertainty, cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset can effectively diversify the risks of traditional markets. Buying Ethereum may be to hedge against stock market fluctuations and enhance investment safety.
3. Layout of DeFi and NFT: Although DeFi (decentralized finance) and NFT (non-fungible tokens) are currently underperforming, these two areas still hold great potential. Ethereum is the core platform for these two sectors, and the Trump family may want to take advantage of low prices to prepare for future growth.
4. Dual considerations of politics and economy: By investing in Ethereum, the Trump family not only has the opportunity to make money but also to establish connections with key figures in the cryptocurrency industry, which may help their future capital operations and political layouts.
Overall, the Trump family's operations this time are well thought out. Although the market is currently sluggish, they see the long-term value of Ethereum. For investors, such actions are worth considering, but one must always remain vigilant and pay attention to market risks.
Let's take another look at the situation of altcoins.
AI's current popularity has already far surpassed other fields—
After experiencing waves of trends like inscriptions, runes, AI, DEPIN, RWA, TON ecosystem, SUI ecosystem, MEME, elections, ETF sector, NFT, platform coins, DESCI, AI AGENT, etc., the strongest narrative may have been born: AI agent.
This track combines the liquidity of memes and the value narrative of building; the scalability of the theme is simply limitless.
There might be a correction in the short term, but there's no need to worry about Son Ge's entry; AI + Crypto will definitely break through $10 billion, $20 billion, $50 billion, or even higher!
These days, the two major factions discussing the AI agent track on the Sol chain are AI16z and Swarms.
Currently, AI16z is firmly in the lead, and Swarms is strong, temporarily ranking second. I estimate that when Swarms' market cap reaches one-third of AI16z, it will hit a peak.
Regarding the ecological coins of AI16z, besides ELIZA and Degenai, Focai is also worth paying attention to. Focai's market cap surged from $60M to $28M and has almost corrected. I actually bought in early... Focai is known as the first immortal on-chain AI agent, based on technologies like ELIZA, ElizaOS, and TEE.
Seeing many big players in Swarms starting to invest in Zailgo, I followed suit. I received airdrops twice and am quite happy, feeling this development team has great potential. Regardless of the project's intentions, the retail investors still made a profit. However, the recent narrative has flipped, with some saying Zailgo's developers are aligned with AI16z, while there's controversy over the authenticity of Prism. Let’s watch and see for now.
After the recent adjustment, my suggested holding ratio is: AI16z and Swarms each account for 70%, and other coins account for 30%. The benefit of this approach is that the leading projects' gains are not necessarily small, and the pullback won't be too deep, which can help stabilize the mindset. The remaining 30% can be used to chase alpha.
Recently, I summarized a bottom-fishing technique: even if you are optimistic about a project, you can only start with a small position, and wait for it to rebound 60% after it surges before adding to your position. Don't get too FOMO...
On January 20, 2025, Trump officially takes office, and related concept coins also soar in popularity! Come and see this wave of layouts that are worth focusing on:
Core tokens and their underlying relationships:
1. RSR: The new SEC chairman, Paul Atkins, was once an advisor for RSR.
2. ZRX & DYDX: David Sacks, in charge of AI and crypto at the White House, is an advisor to ZRX, and his venture capital firm has also invested in DYDX.
3. ENA / ONDO / LINK / AAVE: Trump's 'World Finance' team completed the layout of these tokens through COW.
4. DOGE: Will the 'Government Efficiency Department (DOGE)' led by Musk continue to pump?
Fan Q&A:
When is the right time to enter WLD?
When the price retraces to the lower green area and starts to rebound, you can enter the market.
Market confidence is getting stronger; whether mainstream coins or altcoins, they are quietly rising. Did you seize the opportunity?
AI concepts are still the hot favorites of the market, and meme coins are accumulating explosive energy. The meme narrative will still be hot in 2025, and both AI and memes are currently at the bottom of an upward trend.
Even ordi sats are experiencing weekly-level increases; when the market comes, anyone can make money, but those who can select those coins that rise first and rise the most rely on technology for early predictions and ambushes.
I feel that the current market situation, all sectors are steadily rising, and it's not yet time for rotation.
I put 80% of my position into relatively stable sectors: major coins like ETH and SOL. In the coming months, these coins are likely to outperform Bitcoin; I won't adjust this part of the allocation, and I'll continue to hold other major coins in spot positions.
The remaining 20% is for short-term sniper plays: this 20% position is to cope with the uncertainty of when the bull market starts to rotate. Every day, some low-market-cap coins rise by 30%-50%, but remember to set stop-losses to avoid impacts from market downturns. The goal is to make about 50% in the short term, with a high risk-reward ratio.
As long as you follow this bull market for 3-5 months, you can take a break for several years afterward.
Finally, let's summarize the important news recently:
1. The exchange AI tokens WLD, Render, IQ, etc., are all rising, and Son Ge’s JST, BTTC are also rising. Son Ge is optimistic about AI and is ready to 'go all in.'
2. The on-chain AI sector like AI16z, ARC, Swarms, Griffain, etc., are all rising. AI16z and ARC have a strategic partnership, while Swarms is controlled by major players. Speculative funds are starting to flow into coins like Long Three and Long Four.
3. Meme coin sector's Fartcoin, Goat, Pnut, Chillguy, etc., are all declining.
