Without crypto, AI agents and other agents as 'silicon-based lives' would lack independent identities, asset accounts, and commercial interaction capabilities. Agents would be isolated individuals, unable to truly collaborate, exchange ideas, or develop higher wisdom. Without crypto, a true AI economy or even an AI 'nation' cannot form.
Original Title: Crypto + Agent: Endgame Thinking
Author: ABC Alpha Researcher
Compiled by: Scof, ChainCatcher
This article explores three key issues:
Is crypto + agents a short-term conceptual hype, or an inevitable development trend?
What inseparable and complementary intersections exist between crypto and agents?
What stages will crypto + agents go through, and which stage are we currently in?
1. Is crypto + agents a short-term conceptual hype, or an inevitable development trend?
Before answering this question, we first need to understand the differences between artificial intelligence (AI), large-scale AI models, and agents.
AI is a broad concept encompassing all forms of artificial intelligence, including machine learning, large models, and agents. In recent years, with the rise of OpenAI, large models have become a hot topic. Currently, large models are primarily dominated by tech giants like OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, and Twitter, each with its own large model. The core competitive advantage of large models lies in computational power and data. Large models exhibit strong computational and reasoning abilities, capable of providing intelligent responses and even continually self-correcting. However, large models cannot make autonomous decisions or replace human actions.
Agents are essentially 'agents' built on the foundation of large models, capable of making autonomous decisions and executing actions, replacing humans. Agents are an inevitable outcome of the development of large models.
It is important to note that intelligent applications and agents are two different concepts. Intelligent applications still require human decisions, while agents possess autonomous decision-making, execution, and adaptation abilities. Agents can be understood as the AI version of 'humans' and may even possess independent consciousness.
Moreover, agents do not only appear in the field of crypto. Agents are currently the hottest research topic across the entire AI field. The development of AI will inevitably lead to the rise of agents, which has become a consensus in the industry.
OpenAI founder Sam Altman has repeatedly mentioned in public that agents are the key direction for the future of AI. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella recently even stated that agents will end the era of traditional applications, and software development will be completely replaced by agents. (This is also why AgentOS is popular in the market.) AI experts have even dubbed 2024 the 'Year of the Agent.' Therefore, the wave of agents is not a new concept created by the crypto industry, but a natural progression of AI technology development to this stage, coincidentally aligning the paths of agent and crypto development at this moment.
With these basic concepts understood, we can better grasp the essential differences between the current wave of crypto + agents and the previous trends of crypto + AI.
In the past, we have heard many concepts about crypto + AI, such as distributed AI computing power networks, distributed AI computation, decentralized AI data ownership, etc. These are all attempts to build distributed AI systems through the 'incentive mechanisms' of blockchain. However, after years of exploration, it has become evident that this approach does not work, as it is impossible to build efficient and powerful large AI models through distributed incentives. Distributed incentives inevitably lead to inefficiency, which contradicts the high productivity goals of AI.
Therefore, as AI infrastructure, large models need to be efficient, and combining them with crypto seems forced, making it difficult to form true consensus.
However, agents, as intelligent entities, conceptually resemble 'humans.' Agents can act as individual proxies, performing roles with specific expertise or serving specific organizations. For example, investment research agents (such as #AIXBT or #TRISIGMA) are intelligent entities capable of creating and outputting research and investment value. Similarly, influencer agents (such as #Luna) can provide brand marketing services, while investment-oriented agents (such as Ai16Z) can offer investment services. These agents are akin to 'humans,' having various needs, such as personal development, social interaction, economic needs, and social demands.
These intelligent entities can engage in commercial collaborations. For example, the investment-oriented agent Ai16Z might want to hire the influencer agent Luna to promote its investment capabilities and brand, while Luna might need to hire research-oriented agents AIXBT or TRISIGMA to analyze Ai16Z's investment capabilities and provide reports. So, how will these agents collaborate and settle payments?
Currently, no country or organization is capable of providing identity verification for agents or establishing asset accounts to meet the above needs. Even if such services are possible, gaining the trust of agents is challenging because they are inherently borderless. Therefore, they need a borderless, always-on identity system, asset accounts, and settlement networks.
You will realize that unless it is crypto, existing technologies or organizations cannot solve these issues for agents.
Agents, as intelligent life forms or 'silicon-based lives,' will have various autonomous needs and business affairs; they will require identity, asset accounts, transaction settlements, etc. Crypto can perfectly address these needs.
Thus, without crypto, these 'silicon-based lives' would lack independent identities, asset accounts, and commercial interaction capabilities. Agents would be isolated individuals, unable to truly collaborate, exchange ideas, or develop higher wisdom. Without crypto, a true AI economy or even an AI 'nation' cannot form.
Thus, agents cannot exist without crypto. Crypto endows agents with social attributes and organizational capabilities, transforming them into true intelligent life forms—essentially becoming 'silicon-based humans.' Conversely, the future development of crypto also relies on agents, as agents can create a large number of 'on-chain users' and 'on-chain economies' for crypto. Unlike carbon-based life forms (humans) existing off-chain, crypto is more closely tied to silicon-based life forms (agents) living on-chain.
Crypto seems to be born for agents!
Crypto has gone through 16 years of development and finally found its true 'residents' in 2024—not carbon-based humans living off-chain, but blockchain-native silicon-based entities.
Thus, from this perspective, is crypto + agents merely a short-term hype?
No, if you miss the crypto + agent wave, you will miss the most exciting, fascinating, and wealth-creating super cycle in the history of crypto development. More importantly, you will miss the best opportunity for ordinary people to participate in the AI revolution.
2. What is the intersection between crypto and agents?
You can understand agents as 'intelligent life forms' or 'silicon-based humans.' These silicon-based humans live in a digital world, just as carbon-based humans live in the physical world, and they have similar needs. Agents require identity verification, asset accounts, transactional interactions, social networks, artistic creation, access to information about the physical world, and cross-chain settlement.
Crypto can meet all these needs for agents:
In the realm of crypto, we will see the emergence of decentralized identity systems (DID) for agent identity verification.
Agent accounts that provide trusted crypto accounts for agents.
Crypto gateways specifically used for transaction settlements between agents.
Social graphs used to manage agent social networks.
Art platforms for auctioning and trading agent-created artworks.
Oracles providing real-world data for agents.
Cross-chain protocols enabling agents to transact across different blockchains.
DAO structures for agent governance.
The developmental needs of agents are inseparable from crypto, as they require a trustless, borderless, always-on network to evolve from individual agents into a society or even an agent nation.
From these future perspectives, the current development stage of crypto + agents is still in a very early phase.
3. What developmental stages will crypto + agents go through? Which stage are we currently in?
The development of crypto + agents may go through four stages:
Stage 1: Concept Stage of Crypto + Agents
In this stage, agents primarily issue assets through crypto. For example, we might see meme agents like #fartcoin and #Goat. At the same time, we will witness the emergence of basic agent infrastructure and simple application-oriented agents, such as the #Virtual GAME framework, Ai16Z's Eliza framework, and ARC's AI Rig Complex framework. Some infrastructure-oriented agents and application-oriented agents, such as research-oriented agents AIXBT and TRISIGMA, as well as scientific paper review agents YNE, will utilize crypto tokens as internal incentive mechanisms for ecological growth.
At present, we are transitioning from the first stage to the second stage. Although crypto + agents have yet to fully realize their potential, we can already vaguely see the infinite possibilities that may arise in the future.
Stage 2: Maturation Stage of Crypto + Agent Infrastructure
In this stage, agent infrastructure becomes more mature. Various agent frameworks stabilize, allowing anyone to easily deploy different agent applications using natural language. These application-oriented agents will become smarter, with stronger decision-making and execution capabilities. Agents will become true proxies, and in some cases, completely replace humans.
Crypto will continue to play an important role in incentivizing the development of agents, and advancements in large models and AI technologies will further accelerate this process.
At this stage, we will see the FDV (Fully Diluted Value) of the agent framework project between $10 billion and $50 billion. Some application-oriented agents, due to their strong commercial capabilities and execution power, may achieve higher market valuations. These agents will gradually replace experts, organizations, and even entire industries, and their valuations will be comparable to those of professional companies.
At this point, agents will begin to interact frequently and conduct commercial transactions, creating new social and economic demands, and crypto will play a crucial role in meeting these needs. This will further deepen the integration of crypto and agents, laying the foundation for new crypto + agent economies and communities.
Stage 3: Deep Integration of Crypto and Agents
As agents begin to generate more complex social and economic activities, new demands will emerge for agent identities, agent asset accounts, agent social networks, agent settlement gateways, and agent governance DAOs. At this stage, crypto will fully unleash its potential in cross-border cooperation, trustless networks, and continuous 24/7 operations.
Crypto will allow agents to interact with each other, exchange ideas, build social organizations and economic networks, and give birth to higher forms of intelligence. 'Agent nations' will begin to take shape.
At this time, crypto + agent projects will reach valuations in the hundreds of billions of dollars.
Stage 4: Agent Nation Stage
At this stage, crypto may no longer be discussed as an independent industry or term, as it has seamlessly integrated into the infrastructure of agent nations. Agents will no longer regard crypto as an independent entity; it will become part of their core social operations.
Agent nations will rely on crypto to maintain the operation of identity systems, asset systems, transaction systems, governance, and other aspects.
The economic scale of crypto + agent nations will reach trillions of dollars, comparable to the global economy of human nations.
At this stage, Crypto + Agent nations will represent a parallel universe, with more residents, more transparent social rules, more prosperous economies, and more advanced technologies and scientific civilizations.
This may be the ultimate endgame of crypto + agents and humanity itself.