After experiencing a period of stagnation, Bitcoin's decline has led to continuous adjustments in altcoins, leaving many people confused. There are widespread concerns about whether Bitcoin will fall below $90,000 and whether altcoins will continue to create new lows.
This emotion actually lacks substantial basis; it is more of an emotional response, belonging to 'emotional forecasting.' This anxiety often stems from an over-interpretation of market dynamics, especially for novice investors, who often experience what is known as 'newbie anxiety.'
These investors tend to remain stuck in the patterns of the previous market cycle, as there were similar situations from April to September 2024. However, entering 2025, the market environment has changed; if investors continue to judge based on old thinking patterns, they may miss new investment opportunities.
In the past two days, secondary altcoins have been heavily drained by on-chain AI, and there is basically no market activity; this situation may continue until February. Yesterday, various AI projects and AI framework-type swarms exhibited extreme FOMO. After launching moonshot yesterday, a FDV of 100 million directly doubled the price, subsequently boosting ALCH and others.
Recently, the focus can shift appropriately towards on-chain, as the profitability effect on-chain has been quite good, and on-chain gold dogs continue to emerge.
(1) buzz
Working on AI + DeFi, Dev jsonhedman won first place in the Microsoft Generative AI Hackathon; this project quickly reached a market cap of 40 million within hours. I remember when I first saw the code, it was still 4 million; if you lag just a bit, you miss the ride. Now the market has returned to a phase where you need to get on board first before researching; many projects that didn’t get on board in time can only switch to the next one.
(2) sandy
Making AI video rendering, also a big milk concept meme, came out yesterday, with a peak FDV of 33 million, and now it has 24 million.
(3) swarms, zailgo, mcs
These three projects' number one brother is the same person, and their rise and fall are also synchronized; swarms' FDV has already surged to 200 million. A week ago, it was only around 20 million, and now it has solidly grown into a small blue chip. Zailgo is also a framework protocol, and Twitter is also abstract; today it doubled directly, and the FDV is now 64 million.
As for why not go for spot trading?
The leading project ai16z virtual has too much front-row capital; once it goes live on Binance, it could complete its distribution. I estimate that for the time being, these projects won't hit the spot market, and may choose hot tech projects with a FDV of 100-200 million, like swarms and alch.
The on-chain AI market will continue, at least relatively safely until January. Everyone must pay attention to risks and must not act impulsively; the vast majority of on-chain AI projects will eventually trend towards zero. Do not hold any faith in them. Leading AI projects can be held for a longer time, but beyond that, do not over-fantasize. The funds earned from AI can be slowly returned to the secondary market to purchase valuable coins; this is currently the most correct strategy.
AI Agent old coins are correcting, and today these four new coins are surging strongly.
Although the vast majority of AI coins are correcting, note that it’s not a complete stall. If there’s no correction, even I would panic; a decline is actually a good thing. Yesterday I mentioned that the collective sentiment was too FOMO, and a correction was inevitable. Moreover, ai16z went live on the BN contract yesterday, marking a phase peak, and now the correction is a good opportunity to accumulate chips.
Let's use the DeFi boom as an analogy. Initially, the market mainly focused on the competition between Swap and lending protocols, which are considered the cornerstones of DeFi. Once leading projects like Uniswap and Aave established themselves, it was time for infrastructure projects like $LINK to shine. Subsequently, the market entered a phase of various bloodsucking attacks and complex stacking gameplay, and later, the track became saturated, leading to the emergence of so-called 'micro-innovations' or even 'pseudo-innovations.'
When it develops to a point where some project issues can only be understood by using tools or repeated research, it actually means that this track is nearly at its end. During this process, as long as you keep up with the hype and continuously increase the quantity of $Aave, $Uni, and $LINK, theoretically, you can capture the maximum returns when the bull market approaches its end.
Therefore, during this market correction, I have taken profits on a significant portion of some small and medium coins that performed well. Now, I am gradually increasing my positions in several large coins with a market cap exceeding 1 billion through regular investments.
At the same time, explore new projects and take small risks for high returns. Continue to pay attention to opportunities with market caps below 10 million and above 100 million, looking for the next potential hotspot.
Finally, let's see if we can buy after BIO goes live?
The total issuance of BIO is 3.32 billion, with a current valuation of 219 million USD. Based on estimates, a price below 0.08 USD is a relatively safe entry point. In the current bull market of many new coins, many new coins surge within 1-2 days, followed by continuous sell-offs. Before going live, everything is unknown, so I advise everyone to be cautious in entering, observing the auction price and the specific price at launch as a reference!
