January, the first month of 2025, is destined to be a tumultuous month: Trump is officially inaugurated as President of the United States, the Federal Reserve holds its first monetary policy meeting of the new year, and before that, U.S. non-farm data, CPI, and other economic data will be released, with the Chinese New Year holiday at the end of the month... All of this could trigger drastic fluctuations in the crypto market, necessitating our preemptive measures.
In the past December, Bitcoin first broke the $100,000 mark, peaking at $108,351, then experienced three major drops, causing the market to experience drastic fluctuations, with the sentiment shifting from FOMO to caution.
So, in January, will these major financial events ignite the market and push Bitcoin to a new high of $120,000? I have specially organized a financial calendar for January in the crypto circle, covering major events both inside and outside the circle, and providing in-depth interpretations of significant events and their underlying logic to help you navigate through the clouds and find your wealth code.
How have Bitcoin's returns historically fared in January?
Before diving into the article, as is customary, let's review: historically, how have Bitcoin's returns in January, as a barometer for the crypto market, fared? Below is data compiled from third-party websites like TradingView:
From the chart above, it can be seen that historically, in January, Bitcoin has generally risen more often than it has fallen, with a rise-fall ratio of 4:6 over the past 10 years.
Specifically, the declines in down years are mostly minor; for instance, in 2015, 2016, and 2018, the declines were less than 1%, which can be considered flat;
In the second year after the halving, which are 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin's January returns were both positive, indicating that the halving is still a strong bullish signal.
Reviewing major events that directly affect the rise and fall of the entire crypto market
Note: The times mentioned below are all in Beijing time (UTC+8);
January 9, minutes of the Federal Reserve FOMC monetary policy meeting
Specific time: 3:00
The FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes are a detailed report released by the Federal Reserve after each monetary policy meeting, documenting the discussions, decision-making processes, and assessments of the economic situation that took place during the meeting.
The minutes of the meeting are usually published about three weeks after the meeting ends. They hold significant reference value for investors, economists, and policy analysts, as they provide insights into the Federal Reserve decision-makers' views on the economic situation, future economic policy directions, and financial markets.
Because during the December meeting, Powell made hawkish remarks that led to a market crash, the minutes of this meeting are particularly important. We need to find the reasons for the hawkish stance in the minutes and identify the potential for interest rate cuts at the end of the month; the market will pay more attention to the minutes of this meeting, which may again provoke significant market volatility.
January 10, U.S. December non-farm data will be released
Specific time: 21:30
Last month, non-farm employment rebounded significantly more than the market expected, with the unemployment rate rising as anticipated to 4.2%, and the non-farm employment population increasing by 227,000, the largest increase since April. This data intensified the market's bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, which indeed occurred in December; moreover, following the data release, Bitcoin continued to rise and set a new historical high.
From the current market expectations, this non-farm data is not expected to have much surprise; the unemployment rate remains around 4.2%, and non-farm employment is expected to increase by about 200,000. If these data meet expectations, it may not prevent the Federal Reserve from pausing its rate cut plans at the end of the month unless the data significantly deviates from expectations, such as a higher unemployment rate or a decrease in non-farm employment, forcing Federal Reserve officials to reassess monetary policy.
After the data is released, if it meets expectations, the crypto market may rise initially and then fall, resulting in short-term volatility, requiring attention to risk control.
January 15, U.S. December CPI will be released
Specific time: 21:30
As the last significant economic data released before the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of the month, the release of this CPI holds great significance. If the CPI data is neither good nor bad, it may not prevent the Federal Reserve from pausing its rate cut plans; as long as the data does not show a significant decline, it is considered negative for the market; if the CPI shows a substantial drop, it could be a bullish stimulus for the market, although currently, this possibility is relatively small.
The CPI released last month showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7% for November, although it rose for the second consecutive month, reaching a four-month high, it led to the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December as expected; however, the data was within expectations, which gave Fed Chair Powell confidence to make hawkish comments in the post-meeting statements that caused the crypto market to crash.
Currently, the release of this CPI data may not bring much good news for the market; if the data does not change significantly, short-term fluctuations in the market are most likely.
January 20, Trump is inaugurated as President of the United States
Trump's inauguration as President of the United States is largely seen as a positive factor for the crypto market, especially since Musk, the largest KOL in the crypto circle, holds an important position in the new government; in our previous article: Is Trump being shot at a self-directed performance? Will it benefit the crypto circle? Could this be the last great bull market in crypto?, we mentioned that Trump's election as President would compel the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts, which is a key logic for the crypto market's rise following his election.
A little over a week after Trump's inauguration is the Federal Reserve's first monetary policy meeting of 2025 (January 28-29). This makes Trump's inauguration and speech even more important.
There is even a conspiracy theory in the market suggesting that the continuous decline in financial markets such as U.S. stocks and crypto markets is to wait for Trump to take office before rising, which could be part of his achievement. Although this claim is essentially absurd, it reflects the market's high expectations for Trump's post-inauguration.
This inauguration is just the beginning; what is more important is to see what kind of economic and foreign policies Trump will establish after taking office, as this will have a huge impact on all markets worldwide, including the crypto market.
January 30, Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Specific time: 3:00
There is currently a narrative in the market that as the Federal Reserve's interest rates reach a more 'neutral' level—high enough to suppress inflation but low enough to protect the labor market—Federal Reserve officials have begun discussing slowing the pace of interest rate cuts. They argue that if actions are taken too quickly, inflation could stay above the 2% target, while acting too slowly may lead to a sharp rise in unemployment.
Currently, the mainstream expectation for this interest rate decision is to keep rates unchanged; for example, CME's 'FedWatch' indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates is as high as 89.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is only 10.7%.
Unless the previously released CPI and non-farm data significantly differ from usual, it is likely to remain unchanged, which would be considered a 'negative turning positive' for the crypto market, potentially driving prices up.
January 28-February 4, Chinese New Year holiday
Chinese New Year is one of the largest traditional festivals globally, with significant influence in East Asia and Southeast Asia, where these countries and regions are important participants in the crypto market.
Historically, the Spring Festival holiday has mainly impacted the crypto market by decreasing trading activity and increasing market volatility (mainly due to fewer buy and sell orders, large trades could lead to significant price fluctuations), causing dramatic price fluctuations of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Additionally, during the holiday period, some stock markets in Asian countries/regions may close early, so attention should be paid to the transmission of these traditional financial market fluctuations to the crypto circle.
Other financial events
January 7, Eurozone CPI data will be released; U.S. November trade balance;
January 8, small non-farm data - U.S. December ADP employment figures will be released;
January 12, China's CPI and PPI data will be released;
January 16, U.S. core retail sales data will be released;
January 18, U.S. net purchases of foreign securities in November; the Philippines SEC releases a consultation draft for crypto asset providers;
January 24, Japan's December national CPI year-on-year; Japan's January 24 central bank policy benchmark interest rate;
January 30, Hong Kong's basic interest rate on January 30; European Central Bank's main refinancing rate;
Tokens unlocked in January
KAS: On January 6, 182.23 million tokens were issued, worth $20 million;
ENA: 12 million tokens will be unlocked before January 8, worth $12.16 million, for ecosystem development;
OP: On January 9, 31.34 million tokens will be distributed, worth $57 million;
CIRX: On January 12, 2.8 billion tokens will be unlocked, worth $102.9 million, accounting for 62.4% of the circulation
APT: On January 12, 11.31 million tokens will be unlocked, worth $104.2 million, accounting for 2.03% of the circulation;
ARB: On January 16, 92.65 million tokens will be unlocked, worth $70.9 million, accounting for 2.2% of the circulation;
In addition, some cryptocurrencies currently follow a linear unlocking model, meaning tokens are distributed daily; representative cryptocurrencies mainly include:
SOL: Tokens worth $14 million are sold daily;
WLD: Tokens worth $12.4 million are released daily;
TIA: Tokens worth $5.1 million are unlocked daily;
DOGE: Tokens worth $4.63 million are released daily;
AVAX: Tokens worth $4.02 million are unlocked daily;
DOT: Tokens worth $2.94 million are distributed daily;
The specific unlocking dates and quantities may be adjusted due to actual circumstances. Token unlocks usually lead to fluctuations in token prices, which can be judged comprehensively based on market conditions, risk expectations, and token situations to make wise investment decisions.
Conclusion
Currently, the crypto market has entered a critical phase, and historically, every second year after Bitcoin's halving has marked the beginning of a crazy bull market, where not only Bitcoin surges but also a plethora of altcoins and concepts explode.
January is not only the beginning of 2025 but may also mark the start of the fourth halving cycle entering a bull market. The momentum of the halving has been building for over 8 months, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have already been underway for 3 months. The market has accumulated enough momentum to enter a new phase of the halving bull market; any financial event could ignite the market, requiring investors to stay vigilant.
Finally, the information in this article does not constitute investment advice. Please thoroughly review and grasp more information, make comprehensive judgments about the market, and make your own decisions.