Hot topics of Master Chat:
Today, let's talk about the US dollar index first, because it has always been closely related to the US stock market and the pie circle. Although the US stock market and the pie circle look good for the time being, the US dollar index has quietly rushed to more than 109, and is just one step away from breaking through 110.
I vaguely remember that the U.S. dollar index reached a high of 115 in 2022. Although we cannot say that we have entered a full bear market yet, we can clearly feel that the market's risk appetite is declining.
I have said several times before that the market in 2025 can only take one step at a time, especially in the first quarter. Maybe because of the emotional effect of the power transfer, the market can still take a breather. But once we enter the second quarter, it depends on the strength of Trump's support for the big cake.
At present, the retracement of Bitcoin from 99964 to 91530 can be confirmed to have ended in the short term. If it rebounds to the range of 99k to 102k, the decline since 108k will be officially over.
In addition, the market of altcoins still depends on the leadership of big bitcoins, such as SOL or ETH. After all, big bitcoins are the only ones in the lead, and they are in the first half of this round of market. If we block all external interference factors and look at it purely from the perspective of emotions and human nature, the second half of the market has not yet begun. If there is not enough emotion, the altcoin bull market will not really come.
Although the price of bitcoin has risen a lot in the past two days, the trading volume has not kept up. The turnover rate is still declining significantly, which also shows that the market liquidity has not improved. This is also within the expectations of the master. Anyway, we have to wait until next week to see a clearer direction.
In fact, except for the big cake, the market is basically calm. In addition, as the US dollar index continues to rise as mentioned at the beginning, the possibility of a cooling of the market's risk appetite is increasing.
And as for the rise of Bitcoin, I am not sure whether it is due to the impact of the US Internal Revenue Service's postponement of the cryptocurrency tax policy. After all, there is no special positive news. In addition, US stocks related to cryptocurrencies have also retreated, so I do not think this is the beginning of a new round of surge.
Back to the trend of the big cake, the loss-making retail investors have almost finished reducing their holdings. After today's rise, some investors who made profits in the short term began to step up their pace of leaving the market. This kind of volatile market is indeed more suitable for friends who operate in the short term.
According to the current support data, the 95k mentioned by the master in the early stage is still relatively stable. The shock trend in recent days is also in line with expectations. We can see whether the support level needs to be adjusted after next week.
Another key point now is that if the US stock market continues to fall after opening tonight, can Bitcoin and Ethereum still rise independently, especially in the absence of new positive stimulus? Of course, this is not a bearish view, but I personally think that the market will remain in a large range of fluctuations, and we will have to wait until next week to see a clearer direction.
Master looks at the trend:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 97800
Second resistance level: 97300
Support level reference:
First support level: 96700
Second support level: 96000
Today's suggestion:
Bitcoin has recently stabilized in the 93K range and gradually stabilized at 94~95K. Due to the reduced profit attractiveness, along with new liquidity and capital inflows, the market is expected to experience greater volatility before Trump's inauguration on January 20.
If the regulatory policies and institutional entry of Bitcoin are further clarified this year, it is also expected to usher in a wave of sharp rises due to more capital inflows. If the price stabilizes around 97.1~97.3K and breaks through the downward trend line in the figure, it can be preliminarily determined that the 4-hour level trend is expected to reverse.
Although there is a trend breakout on the short-term chart, it is still holding the previous high. The second support of 96k is also the previous high area, and it is also an opportunity to buy at a very short-term low.
If a rebound occurs and the market consolidates at a high level, it is recommended to use the lower support line as a stop loss setting in the short term and look for ultra-short-term entry opportunities. When the trend consolidates at a high level, this is usually a positive sign for the upward trend, and the situation of the lower support line can be paid attention to during the day.
1.3 Master band pre-embedded:
Long entry reference: 95400-96000 range light long position target: 97300-97800
Short entry position reference: Not referenced yet
