The S2F (Stock-to-Flow) model and the trend in the chart, S2F predicts that the BTC price may reach $500,000 in 2025, which is indeed a very optimistic estimate. If the price reaches this level, the price shown in the chart will again enter the range of the blue line.
Key observations:
1. **Blue line interval**:
- The blue line usually represents the stable range of the trend. If the price enters the blue line, it means that the market has returned to the long-term model, and the price may gradually move upward.
2. **Basic assumptions of S2F model**:
- The S2F model is based on the scarcity of Bitcoin, and as the supply decreases with each halving (such as the halving in 2024), the price can increase significantly.
3. **Market Reality**:
- Predicting a price of $500,000 requires taking into account many factors, such as macroeconomic conditions, global policy regulations, and market adoption of cryptocurrencies.
4. **Short-term fluctuations**:
- Even if S2F predicts higher prices in the long term, the market may still experience large fluctuations in the short term, as shown by the repeated changes in the red and blue lines in the chart.