The Coinbase premium indicator is showing its lowest value since January 2023, when this cycle bottomed out. This indicates that U.S. investors' sentiment is significantly subdued.
In past bullish phases, when the premium turned negative, it often led to a rebound and continued upward trend. This suggests that when U.S. investors' sentiment was at its most pessimistic, major buying pressure entered the market, driving prices up.
From a technical analysis perspective, $90k, which has seen multiple instances of buying pressure, is considered a key psychological support level and an important benchmark price for maintaining upward momentum. This support level is likely to be a battleground for bullish and bearish sentiments. It could potentially lead to complex price movements such as Stop-Hunting, which could actually present a strong buying opportunity.
In conclusion, two scenarios are possible. On the upside, a bounce may occur if the Coinbase and short-term SOPR indicators are negative while upward momentum remains above $90k. On the downside, after the sharp decline, some sideways consolidation may delay further gains.
Given the on-chain and fundamental picture, the bull market in this cycle likely isn't over. It's probably just a matter of time for further upside. Therefore, long-term investors might consider continuing to buy and hold.
Written by MAC_D
