The next round of altcoin trends is likely to start when Bitcoin firmly breaks through $100,000, expected in the first quarter of 2025. However, it is also possible that the market will replicate the trends of the second and third quarters of 2024. Here are several possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: BTC and altcoins rise together
In 2025, the overall trend remains upward, altcoin season reappears, Bitcoin's rise drives all tokens to perform well, similar to the situation of the past two months (probability 30-40%).
Strategy: Focus on quality altcoins and position at low levels.
Scenario 2: BTC rises, some altcoins perform well
The market may repeat the volatile trend of 2024, but overall more bullish (probability 50-60%).
Strategy: Select quality altcoins, avoid popular tracks, and seek potential varieties.
Scenario 3: BTC rises, altcoins overall decline
The Bitcoin vampire effect is evident, most altcoins are under pressure (probability 20-30%).
Strategy: Reduce altcoin allocation and decisively cut losses on poorly performing assets.
Scenario 4: BTC and altcoins decline together
Market peaks, Bitcoin corrects, altcoins face a comprehensive setback (probability 10-20%).
Strategy: Liquidate altcoins and wait for a better entry opportunity.
On the macro front, a new Bitcoin historical high may not take as long as it did in 2024. After the ETF launch, traditional financial institutions are still promoting Bitcoin's value. Meanwhile, although the strategic Bitcoin reserve discussions brought about by Trump's victory are unlikely, they have significantly enhanced Bitcoin's market awareness.
