Bitcoin continues to decline, and market sentiment is weak. First, let’s look at a very interesting chart: BlackRock now holds 552,555 BTC, Grayscale holds 206,860 BTC, and Grayscale's holdings have been decreasing while BlackRock's have been increasing. Doesn’t this resemble the current market, with bulls and bears battling? Who do you think has a higher chance of winning?
Looking back at yesterday's data support, Bitcoin has not effectively broken the 94,000 mark with any accumulation of chips, and the price has gone down to 92,000 but quickly recovered. Combining the script (Extreme short squeeze! Major shift for Bitcoin! High selling and low buying for altcoins! Virtual, is this round's bull market the strongest doubling opportunity?) we are currently in a period of fluctuation. Regardless of breaking or not breaking 92,000, we can expect in the next 1-3 months to touch a new peak. The chart below is the latest data from 2024.12.29, where I marked 1/2/3, corresponding to:
Mark 1: $92,000~$100,000
This is currently the strongest support range, with a total of 2.65 million BTC accumulated, accounting for 13.4% of the total circulating supply.
Mark 2: $87,000-$91,000
Below the 'strongest support range' is a 'buffer zone.' This means that if the 'strongest support range' is broken, BTC will seek new support within this zone. Because this area is not far from the densely packed chip area above, the temporarily trapped 2.65 million chips will not create panic selling pressure, but will instead attract more funds to bottom out here.
Mark 3: $76,000-$86,000
Here is a relatively rare 'fault zone.' Historically, there has never been a permanently maintained fault zone, meaning that the 'fault' will eventually be filled. If we try to fill the fault now, it will inevitably raise market doubts about whether the 'bull market is still here,' creating panic. This is also the worst-case scenario.
I personally believe that the probability of the above 3 situations occurring is 1>2>3;
Many fans are asking if it resembles 519, and when will it hit bottom and rebound?
Although the recent market trend is declining, it feels different from 5.19. Essentially, both are about deleveraging, but 5.19 was a major correction following the explosion of all categories, a significant crash. The recent situation is just deleveraging before a rise; 90% of altcoins haven't risen much, just started to rise a little bit.
To reverse the continuous decline and rebound, we have to wait for Bitcoin to lead the next round of altcoin market. According to historical patterns, there was a month of fluctuation from December 2020 to January, and it has now adjusted for 13 days. If it fluctuates for another half month, it should be about right.
If Ethereum can be strong, then we can expect an altcoin season. Currently, ETH seems to have stabilized and has been fluctuating upwards these past few days; good things are expected. Every time there is a halving, the first year and the first quarter are moments of Ethereum's explosion, with increases of 518% in 2017 and 160% in 2021. What about 2025? A significant drop will provide strong support, just do it, brothers.
Only when the altcoin season comes can most retail investors potentially turn things around, as they mostly hold altcoins without Bitcoin. If this bull market doesn't have an altcoin season, many retail investors will face dire consequences, those who should deliver food will deliver food, and those who should go to sea will go to sea.
Many people's positions need to be adjusted. Following a position ratio of Bitcoin, value coins, and altcoins at 5:3:2 will definitely outperform the vast majority! I believe the bull market is not over, and the altcoin season will still come, but what remains unknown is: can you hold on until the altcoin season arrives?
Altcoins that should be bottomed out during this retracement:
1. AI agent sector, such as secondary market PHA, ATA;
2. Grayscale and BlackRock's holdings include coins like ZEN, ONDO, etc.;
3. Trump concept coins: ETH, COW, AAVE;
4. Meme coins heavily held by market makers: GOAT, MOODENG, PNUT.
For reference only, at your own risk. Personally, I would prioritize PHA, ZEN, and COW.
