Against the backdrop of increasingly stringent global cryptocurrency regulations, the People's Bank of China explicitly mentioned in the 'China Financial Stability Report (2024)' that global cryptocurrency regulation is continuously strengthening, especially the regulatory policies in Hong Kong are receiving much attention. The report emphasizes Hong Kong's progress in promoting compliant management of cryptocurrencies, particularly the innovative measures taken in the regulation and licensing management of virtual assets.
According to reports, Hong Kong categorizes virtual assets into securitized financial assets and non-securitized financial assets, implementing a 'dual license' system for virtual asset trading platforms. This system involves regulation in two aspects: first, regulating securitized assets according to the Securities and Futures Ordinance; second, regulating non-securitized assets according to the Anti-Money Laundering Ordinance. This unique regulatory framework provides valuable references for other global markets. For operators of virtual asset trading platforms, it is mandatory to apply for the corresponding licenses from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to operate legally. This policy not only provides players with a clearer legal framework but also creates a more stable environment for industry development.
Notably, financial institutions in Hong Kong, including large financial entities such as HSBC and Standard Chartered, have been asked to incorporate cryptocurrency exchanges into their daily client supervision, meaning that the compliance and formalization process of the cryptocurrency market will accelerate. As regulations gradually tighten, more traditional financial institutions may begin to accept cryptocurrency business, further promoting the mainstreaming of the industry.
U.S. Bitcoin ETF: Another Milestone for the Industry
Another significant industry trend comes from the rapid development of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF. According to Dune data, the total holdings on-chain for the spot Bitcoin ETF have surpassed 1.12 million BTC, accounting for 5.7% of the current BTC supply, and the total value of on-chain holdings has reached approximately $106.8 billion. This data showcases the tremendous influence of the spot Bitcoin ETF on the Bitcoin market.
More importantly, the launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF also signifies an increasing acceptance of Bitcoin by traditional financial institutions and regulatory bodies. As more institutional players get involved, the market demand and value of Bitcoin are expected to continue to grow. Especially after BlackRock's IBIT successfully absorbed the selling pressure from Grayscale's GBTC, the demand in the spot Bitcoin ETF market is evidently more robust, having attracted substantial capital inflows.
DePIN Industry: Projected revenue exceeds $150 million
In addition to the rapid growth of Bitcoin and other mainstream crypto assets, the DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network) industry has also become a new hotspot. Messari analyst Dylan Bane predicted in a recent talk that the revenue of the DePIN industry will exceed $150 million by 2025. DePIN promotes the construction and operation of physical infrastructure in a decentralized manner, primarily covering areas such as data centers, the Internet of Things, and 5G.
As the supply side of the DePIN industry matures gradually in 2024, the demand side of the market is also continuously expanding. According to Messari data, although the demand side revenue of DePIN was relatively low at the beginning of this year, several protocols have already generated seven-figure or even eight-figure revenues, demonstrating the potential of this model in the industry. If the demand side can further validate and expand, the revenue growth potential of the DePIN industry should not be underestimated.
MicroStrategy and BlackRock's Bitcoin Accumulation: A Strong Signal from the Market
In terms of Bitcoin investment, the accumulation trends of MicroStrategy and BlackRock have also drawn significant market attention. According to HODL15Capital, since Michael Saylor first released Bitcoin Tracker information, MicroStrategy has increased its holdings by approximately 192,042 Bitcoins, while BlackRock has increased its holdings by 118,795 Bitcoins during the same period. This data indicates that institutional players' optimistic sentiment towards Bitcoin continues to grow. With the increasing demand for Bitcoin, the bullish atmosphere in the market is intensifying.
Meanwhile, the 49,591 BTC bought by the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF in December greatly exceeds the 13,500 BTC mined during the same period, further proving the strong demand for Bitcoin in the market. With the increasing demand for Bitcoin and institutional participation, the prospects for the spot ETF market are very promising.
According to Token Unlocks data, tokens such as SUI, OP, ZETA will see significant unlocking this week (December 30 - January 5), among which:
Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 64.19 million tokens at 8 AM on January 1, accounting for 2.19% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $270 million;
Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens at 8 AM on December 31, accounting for 2.32% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $58.6 million;
ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock approximately 53.89 million tokens at 8 AM on January 1, accounting for 9.35% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $32 million;
Beldex (BDX) will unlock approximately 330 million tokens at 8 AM on December 30, accounting for 4.78% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $26.1 million;
Sleepless AI (AI) will unlock approximately 23.21 million tokens at 8 AM on January 1, accounting for 17.85% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $14.6 million;
dydx (DYDX) will unlock approximately 8.33 million tokens at 8 AM on January 1, accounting for 1.17% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $12.8 million;
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 12.86 million tokens at 3 PM on January 1, accounting for 0.44% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $12.1 million.
BTC: Yesterday, Bitcoin closed with a 'small bearish candle,' indicating that the bears slightly have the upper hand. From a weekly perspective, it formed a 'gravestone doji,' which is a typical signal of a transition from bullish to bearish, suggesting significant selling pressure above. Currently, the market has accumulated substantial rebound momentum within a downtrend, but the rebound may be limited due to layered pressure above. Additionally, the daily trading volume has been consistently shrinking recently, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, requiring external capital inflows to drive movements.
Overall, after the U.S. market opens tonight, the restoration of liquidity may provide certain support for the Bitcoin market. If ETF funds flow back as expected, it will help short-term rebounds, but caution should be maintained until it breaks above $98,500, as there may still be a possibility of further testing support around $90,000.
ETH: Yesterday, Ethereum closed with a 'small bearish candle,' testing the 60-day moving average position multiple times on the daily level. Multiple moving averages overlap on the daily level, indicating concentrated chips, and a rebound from oversold conditions may occur this week.
Altcoins: Currently, the funding situation in the altcoin market has not significantly improved, and the profit effect in the market remains weak. Most altcoins are still in the bottom-building phase, making large-scale rises unlikely in the short term. We need to patiently wait for a recovery in the funding situation, which is likely to be triggered by a strong rebound in Ethereum or SOL. Once these mainstream coins experience significant increases, it may lead to capital inflows into the entire market, improving the performance of altcoins as well.
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 65 (Greed)#2025比特币价格预测