Advisor discusses hot topics:
The new week is also approaching the end of the year, and the overall market sentiment is like the weather this winter, cold and desolate. In two days, it will be the ringing of the bell for 2024. As for this week, if there are no explosive news, it will likely just be a situation of fluctuating downwards, after all, the market needs fresh stories to ignite passion.
In the past week, the main cryptocurrency slightly dipped around the 92k range. The seemingly insignificant price fluctuation is actually a subtle struggle among the main forces. Retail investors have already sold what they needed to sell, and those who should have run away have run away, leaving the remaining chips as trophies for the major players to test each other.
The current focus of the market has long shifted from harvesting retail investors to whales pecking at each other. The chips thrown out by institutions like Grayscale and Mentougou are precisely what the main forces see as delicacies. Why? Because they can enter in batches over a long time span within the range of 90-110k to lower their costs.
And what about retail investors? No matter what, they cannot gain any benefits from this range of speculation. The advisor has mentioned many times that the rhythm of the main force's dumping and lifting is not something ordinary people can easily predict.
In the past week, Bitcoin-related ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.327 billion, the largest single-week outflow since the rise from 49k. Data does not lie, what does this imply?
It is highly likely that the market may continue to adjust in the short term, breaking below the support band of 91000-92500, thus completing a breakdown adjustment. Why break? No break, no standing, only by forcing retail investors to completely give up their fantasies can the main force calmly buy the dip and start the next round of rising.
Looking at the turnover rate, the turnover data from the past week is only one-third of the weekend. This is similar to the state when the main cryptocurrency fluctuated around 65k and 26k for a long time. In street slang: the market has already 'collapsed', retail investors have all run away, and what remains is just a smoke-free battle among the main forces.
Unless there is a significant positive or negative news, the market will basically maintain this fluctuating downward rhythm. Even if retail investors still hold on to a glimmer of hope, believing that breaking below 90k will bring new buying opportunities, the main force clearly does not want to let people easily buy the dip.
From the current support levels, if the main cryptocurrency breaks below 92520 this week, then the lower support can be seen between 89.6k-83.8k; if it stands firm at 92520, it may directly start a new round of rising from this line, with the upper pressure concentrated at the 10k integer mark and the range of 102200.
The current viewpoint of the advisor is that behind this wave of adjustments, the overall bullish sentiment in the market has not changed. In other words, the future of the main cryptocurrency remains bright, but short-term fluctuations should not be underestimated. Because every pullback is a buildup of strength for the next stronger rise.
Advisor views trends:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 94300
Second resistance level: 94700
Support level reference:
First support level: 92500
Second support level: 91000
Today's suggestion:
The main cryptocurrency has currently formed a bear flag pattern on a smaller scale, with a brief rebound occurring in the oversold area after the decline. The current expectation is that the third bottom of the triple bottom pattern has risen slightly and closed, which is seen as a positive signal.
However, as we are still in a downward trend, it is advisable to pay attention to opportunities for rebound and supplementary gains, as well as the resistance of the 20-day and 60-day moving averages. Also, focus on the resistance of the bear flag pattern's trapped positions, while maintaining a bearish outlook and looking for short-term rebound opportunities.
It is also necessary to pay attention to whether there is a significant decline and verify the formation of the triple bottom pattern. A rise in the low points is also a positive signal for a rebound, and a risk-reward ratio range can be set. If important support levels are broken, the viewpoint needs to be adjusted and be flexible to respond to chart changes.
12.30 Advisor's wave segment buried:
Long entry reference: light position long in the range of 92000-92800. If it pulls back near 91000, can directly go long. Target: 94300-94700
Short entry reference: light position short in the range of 96000-96500. Target: 94700-94300