Top trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio releases outlook and expectations for the first quarter of 2025 We are finally entering 2025 after a long wait after Trump won the presidential election two months ago. Current market prices are already significantly higher than they were in the recent past, and there is also hope for a more crypto-friendly world, led by the United States. Although we experienced a local high in December, I think the bull market will continue to develop in a similar manner, with some assets outperforming and others lagging relatively. For the coming quarter, the asset that I think will benefit the most is Ethereum (ETH). Here are three reasons why I support this view:
1. Price Comparison and Market Psychology According to the '10 IQ Price Fractal' theory, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has risen 40% from its previous all-time high, while Ethereum (ETH) is still about 30% below its previous all-time high. While this alone doesn't mean much, the fact that both assets have launched ETF products makes ETH appear 'cheaper' than BTC to ordinary investors, and thus is considered to have greater upside potential.
2. Trump's Pro-Crypto Policies The pro-crypto stance of the Trump administration has been most favorable to assets with utility and smart contract functionality. We have seen some decentralized finance (DeFi) assets, such as AAVE and UNI, perform excellently under this expectation, but the asset that has benefited the most is undoubtedly Ethereum. Trump's World Liberty Financial (WLFI) project has not engaged in any activities on Solana but has consistently chosen Ethereum-related assets. I believe this trend will continue.
3. Development of the Base Ecosystem Among all Layer 2 solutions on Ethereum, Base is undoubtedly the star chain this year. With Coinbase's native distribution channels and the organic development of the AI agent metaverse led by 'Virtuals', Base offers a value proposition very similar to Solana and can certainly be seen as a competitor. Since Base does not have its own token, this naturally creates demand for ETH as the underlying asset and brings positive capital inflows with the increase in ecosystem activity.
I expect ETH to break $4000 in January and possibly approach its all-time high in the first quarter. I believe there are three areas that will continue to perform well: AI Agents; tokens with utility that can generate fees; and potential ETF-related tokens. I would not categorize these views as 'contrarian', but I also do not think now is the time to take a strong contrarian position. We will have time later to make contrarian moves, but now is not the time. Regarding the view on the cycle top: I suspect that most of 2025 will resemble 2023 or 2024, where certain areas will experience re-ratings and rises, followed by significant PvP (player versus player) fluctuations. Ultimately, one of these rises will become the top of the global cycle, but I believe we are still far from that point.