History cannot repeat itself, but it is always remarkably similar. Looking back at the bull markets of 2017 and 2021, each bull and bear cycle has coincided with the halving of Bitcoin. According to this pattern, 2025 will be a crazy bull market, and 2026 will enter a bear market. But will ETFs change the cycle and bring the bull market early? Currently, there is no sign of that. Only when Ethereum breaks through the historical high of 4800 and Bitcoin stabilizes at 70,000 can we confirm that the big bull market has begun. Once the big bull market is confirmed, please remember not to switch positions. Why not switch back and forth based on market conditions? One reason is that most people's operations really can't keep up; don't doubt that. Another reason is that for beginners, as long as they choose the right target, not switching positions is already great wisdom.