Bitcoin has the potential to hit new highs (ATHs), driven by favorable policies from the Trump administration, increased inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and advances in stablecoin technology.

The pro-crypto approach of Trump-appointed SEC officials is creating a more favorable environment for digital assets. Bitcoin hit a record high this year, boosted by the approval of U.S. spot ETFs and Trump's election victory, although some assets have outperformed Bitcoin.

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum will see significant developments by 2025, driven by the expected approval of a U.S. cryptocurrency ETF and the possible establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

What risks are there in the market next?

Cyclical peak risk

Predictions of cycle tops need to be constantly self-corrected. While I do not believe we are close to a cycle top, it must be constantly reassessed. A cycle top is not necessarily an “event” but more of a spectrum that is approached over time.

SBR Cashing Risk

With Trump in office, everyone will be watching his actions. Despite the regulatory tailwinds expected for Bitcoin, it would be a pretty bearish event if the president completely forgets about it. The possible risks in my opinion include: SBR being forgotten; or the more likely scenario that SBR does not happen, but is pushed forward in some other way.

In the latter case (changing the SBR scheme), this could be an initially bearish but ultimately bullish event, as long as the scheme itself supports Bitcoin.

In summary: the appearance of a bullish signal means that the bull market will continue; the appearance of a bearish signal means that plans must be reviewed - the bull market may continue, but the probability will decrease.

Supply Risk

In 2024, we witnessed crazy macro conditions in the summer, with stock markets hitting all-time highs, but the cryptocurrency market fell more than it rose, because the market continued to be hit by selling pressure again and again from major supply holders such as MtGox, the German government, and Grayscale GBTC.

Supply risk can never be eliminated. There will always be someone holding a lot of Bitcoin - the UK government, Silk Road, FTX holdings, or any other entity. This is something you have to keep an eye on, but in my opinion, if everything goes well, these events will be good opportunities to buy on the dip.

Macro risks

I think a smaller rate cut is still a rate cut. While this is "less bullish", the fact is that as long as rates continue to fall, liquidity will improve.

Once again, the emergence of bullish signals means that the bull run will continue. Unless there is a rate hike or no rate cut, the macroeconomics should be favorable for digital assets.

Which coins can be bought in the subsequent market?

The days of “buy and hold forever” are gone. Despite a 10x gain in 2023, Solana’s overall performance in 2024 is almost on par with Bitcoin; so-called leaders like TAO have not benefited from the AI ​​boom we have seen in recent months; and for meme tokens, dogs don’t wear hats anymore (WIF), chill guys don’t chill anymore, and hippos (MOODENG) look like spent forces…

There is nothing on this list that you can “buy and hold.”

In addition, I like to think about a question - who are the marginal buyers? In this market, there are basically 3 main marginal buyers - institutions (traditional financial players), funds (liquidity funds/cryptocurrency native funds) and gamblers (contract traders, on-chain players, etc.).

A good narrative must be bought by at least one of the parties. Let’s get straight to the point.

AI

Yes, AI will continue to be a hot topic. I believe the next wave is coming.

Macro level: hype > fundamentals > practicality;

Micro level: Reply guy > Infrastructure > Applications/Avatars.

Buy and hold won't end well. GOAT is the stock that started it all, but it's down 60% from its highs and will likely continue to underperform.

Top picks: Applied technologies, Swarms, Gaming, Consumer-focused AI.

Things like ALCH (game development), Griffain (agent that helps control wallets), Digimon, ai16z (the king of all AIs) are all top choices in my opinion, and there are probably many more that I missed.

DeFi

This also goes without saying. DeFi will continue to be a great narrative, however investing in DeFi is very difficult because there are really few tokens that will benefit from it. Even if they do benefit, they may not go up (look at the LST track).

To be honest, this wouldn't be my first choice in terms of risk-reward either, but I think this will be a narrative that continues to grow into 2025.

Top choices: AAVE / ENA / Morpho / Euler / USUAL;

Secondary options: Stablecoins/payment related tokens.

Layer1

I'm going to get a lot of hate for saying this, but I believe Layer1 trading is back. HYPE is undoubtedly doing great, but SUI was actually looked down upon by many when it was around $1, but it went to $2, and now it's at $4. I think the market has been missing out on Layer1 trading - it's one of those areas that no one is paying attention to, but there's a huge opportunity (HYPE has gone 10x as proof).

Top choices: SUI/HYPE;

Secondary choice: Abstract.

Other narratives

Datatokens: Kaito/Arkm;

meem tokens: I only like PEPE, the others...seem outdated;

DePIN:PEAQ / HNT

Ordinals；

Old Shanzhai: XRP;

Old DeFi: CRV/CVX.

That pretty much sums up my expectations for 2025. The best advice and takeaway is to “stay flexible and enjoy the ride.” The market will continue to change, but that’s just part of the game of life.

No one can execute the same trade twice. Because trades are different, people are different.

Good luck to you all, and we’ll see you on the other side. If you make a life-changing profit in the process, use it to change your life.