1. Industry Headlines:
#福布斯 The predicted seven major trends in the cryptocurrency industry for 2025 reveal potential future directions for the industry. The G7 or BRICS nations may establish #比特币战略储备 , indicating the growing importance of cryptocurrencies in the global financial system. The market capitalization of stablecoins is expected to double to $400 billion, reflecting an increased demand for stablecoins as a store of value and medium of exchange. The growth of the Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem, especially with the aid of L2 networks, signifies innovations and expansions in DeFi. The expansion of crypto ETF products into Ethereum staking and Solana tracks shows the diversification of crypto investment products and the involvement of institutional investors. Tech giants may follow Tesla's lead in increasing their Bitcoin holdings, which would further drive the mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is expected to exceed $8 trillion, based on the current growth momentum and future development potential of the cryptocurrency market. Finally, improvements in the U.S. regulatory environment will promote a resurgence in crypto entrepreneurship, bringing more innovation and vitality to the industry.
2. Overview of the crypto market, quick read on the weekly ups and downs of popular coins/sectors' capital flows
CoinAnk data shows that over the past week, the crypto market's capital net inflows have been concentrated in several key areas, including the Avalanche ecosystem, Arbitrum ecosystem, Binance Smart Contracts, and Real World Assets (RWA). In the past week, several tokens have also experienced significant rotation and increases. The following are the top 500 by market capitalization: #zen , USUAL, SDEX, AIXBT, MOVE, and ZEC have seen relatively high increases.
3. The inflow and outflow of funds in spot ETFs.
Data shows that the continuous inflow of funds and growth in trading volume in the U.S. spot #比特币ETF indicate strong interest in Bitcoin from institutional and retail investors. Over the past 50 weeks, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reached $463 million, with trading volumes as high as $26 billion. The inflow for the fourth quarter so far is $1.75 billion, the best-performing quarter, highlighting Bitcoin's appeal as an investment asset.
Additionally, the price of Bitcoin has fallen to $92,000. Despite the price fluctuations, the proportion of Bitcoin held by ETFs, government agencies, and MSTR has risen to 31%, up from 14% last year, indicating that large investors have confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin. This increase in concentration of holdings may impact market liquidity and price stability, especially in the face of market volatility.
The situation with Ethereum spot ETFs is also worth noting, with a net inflow of $62.73 million last week, while Grayscale's Ethereum Trust ETF ETHE saw a net outflow of $99.83 million, with a historical net outflow of $3.62 billion. This comparison between inflows and outflows may reveal market sentiment and expectations regarding different Ethereum-related products.
ETF data reflects the trends of capital flows and investor sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. With the participation of more institutional investors and the maturation of the crypto market, it is expected to continue influencing market dynamics.
4. On-site BTC balances have rebounded.
The balances and capital flows of Bitcoin wallets across three major trading platforms vary. CoinAnk data indicates that over the past 30 days, there has been a continuous outflow; however, in the short term, the past 7 days have shown a net inflow, demonstrating a divergence in market funds. Some investors may be taking profits at high points, while others are buying at low points. Since December 19, the CEX on-site BTC balance has seen a noticeable rebound, which correlates significantly with the drop in BTC prices following the hawkish interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve last week. We speculate that this may be the main capital choosing to take profits and cash out at relatively high points to prevent uncertainty in the market, creating some selling pressure that led to a market pullback.
Another piece of data can also assist in verification; for example, as BTC selling behavior accelerated over the past 30 days, holding BTC is no longer the default behavior of all market participants. The long-term/short-term holder supply ratio has fallen to 3.78, the lowest value in this cycle, indicating an increase in trading activity in the market, with short-term holders becoming more active, leading to complex and changing market sentiment, and investors having differing opinions on the future trend of Bitcoin.
5. Interpretation of BTC contract funding rates and long-short ratios.
According to contract data, #BTC the contract funding rate has continuously maintained a positive value around 0.01% since December 10. Contracts are not currently leading market trends; more pricing power is happening in spot trading. Combining this with our previous analysis of BTC balances on exchanges and the turnover of long-term/short-term holders, it is clear that recent spot trading is more active.
Last week, we mainly discussed the detailed concepts of funding rates and long-short ratios, and the long-short logic. Here is a brief summary: The current Bitcoin funding rate is around 0.01%, which is a normal and healthy level, maintained since December 10. Even with yesterday's significant price increase, there has not been extreme deviation. Calculating at 0.01%, the annualized return from funding rate arbitrage can reach 10.95%. A funding rate of around 0.01% indicates that the market has a relatively high proportion of long positions, but there is no excessive imbalance, and the market is relatively stable and healthy. The long-short person ratio differs from the long-short position ratio; in a stage of rising prices, a long-short person ratio slightly below 1 is relatively normal, while the large-holder position long-short ratio better reflects the main force's direction, having a greater impact on market trends. Investors should comprehensively consider both the long-short person ratio and the long-short position ratio to fully grasp market sentiment and trends.
6. This week's large token unlock data.
This week, tokens such as IMX and DBX will experience large unlocks, as follows in UTC+8 time:
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 12.86 million tokens at 3 PM on December 25, with a proportion of 0.44% against the current circulation, valued at about $13.22 million.
Cardano (ADA) will unlock approximately 18.53 million tokens at 8 AM on December 26, with a proportion of 0.05% against the current circulation, valued at about $16.3 million.
Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens at 8 AM on December 27, with a proportion of 1.45% against the current circulation, valued at about $32.12 million.
Beldex (DBX) will unlock approximately 330 million tokens at 8 AM on December 30, with a proportion of 4.78% against the current circulation, valued at about $25.46 million.
This week, pay attention to the negative effects of these token unlocks, avoid spot trading, and seek short opportunities in contracts. Among them, DBX and IMX have larger unlock circulation ratios and scales, so pay more attention.
