The Santa Claus rally phenomenon, a seasonal upward trend that usually occurs in the last week of December, has recently drawn widespread attention in the cryptocurrency space.
As 2024 approaches its end, a question has arisen among cryptocurrency investors: has this traditional seasonal rebound lost its former charm, or does it still hold the potential to drive the market upward?
The current market snapshot shows that the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at a stable level of around $95,000, with a negligible increase of less than 1% over the past 24 hours.
Following Bitcoin is Ethereum (ETH), whose price is also close to $3,291, with an increase remaining at a low level of less than 1%. Additionally, Solana (SOL) and Binance Coin (BNB) are also showing slight upward trends, with the entire cryptocurrency market capitalization hovering around $3.5 trillion.
Despite some minor pullbacks in the market, trading volume remains at a high level. Notably, Bitcoin's market share currently stands at 55.08%, further highlighting its core position during this seasonal period.
The Santa Claus rally phenomenon has traditionally been closely linked to market optimism, increased buying behavior due to tax considerations, and the active participation of retail investors. However, a series of recent events, such as the expiration of over $2.6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options, has brought additional volatility to the market.
Options expiration is often a critical moment for traders to adjust their positions, a process that is typically accompanied by price volatility.
From an on-chain data analysis perspective, the current market signals present a complex situation. On one hand, large investors' activities have slowed down, with fewer large transaction records; on the other hand, retail investors continue to accumulate.
Meanwhile, key technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are hovering in the neutral zone, reflecting a lack of clear directional momentum in the market.
What does this mean for investors? In the coming days, the strength of the market rebound will largely depend on the breakout of several key resistance levels. Bitcoin needs to overcome the psychological barrier of $100,000, while Ethereum must reclaim the high ground of $3,500 to restore its bullish trend.
The Bollinger Bands indicator shows that market volatility has decreased, but a breakout could have far-reaching effects.
In the current uncertain market, risk management is particularly important. Investors should closely monitor changes in momentum indicators such as MACD and RSI while remaining alert to macroeconomic trends and regulatory developments that could affect market sentiment.
Although the Santa Claus rally has not brought explosive growth, its potential has not completely vanished. As the market enters 2025, next week will be a key week.
