Understanding the purpose of the bookmaker
If you were Musk, and you had 10 billion Dogecoins in stock and 1 billion in spare money to operate, your top priority now would be to help Trump become the new founding father of the United States.
So what do you use your Dogecoin for? In fact, the core is to ensure that while Musk achieves his political goals, the stability of his core assets increases. His core assets are Tesla and SpaceX stocks. Dogecoin is the most marginal asset. So it can be said that all Dogecoin is used to sacrifice to core assets, especially when a crisis occurs.
In other words, Musk cashed out Dogecoin when he thought his company's stock or political goals were in serious crisis. This distribution can be extremely cruel, because he can still take over after the market crash, and he can eat up all liquidity in both directions, because if Musk's company fails, Doge will be meaningless, it will just return to the original state.
The core value of Dogecoin
In other words, Dogecoin is equivalent to SpaceX, Tesla and PayPal weighted with n times leverage. This is the value of Dogecoin. It is just like before the ABS bubble in 2008. When you buy Dogecoin, you buy Tesla's debt, but Musk does not have to pay you back. The price of Dogecoin fluctuates around this value. If you understand Tesla, you can play Dogecoin.
We will find that something very interesting has happened in the cryptocurrency world: Bitcoin has become the meme of U.S. stocks, is about to become the meme of precious metal gold, and DOGE has become the meme of Tesla.
Operation Logic
Position building method
When you are bullish on the Dow Jones and Nasdaq, buy cakes at the same time. When you are bullish on Tesla, buy dogs at the same time.
Risk Warning
Currently, with a 10% correction, the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Tesla are still at high levels. Not only are there many bearish people, but there are also many potential black swans, such as wars, and gray rhinos, such as tariffs, repatriation, non-agricultural, and Powell's speech in December. Tesla doubled, and Dog tripled. Tesla only needs to dive 30%, and Dog will be cut in half by 60%, that is, 0.4 to 1.6. This is too simple, and Musk does not need to call you for instructions.
Shipping method
Bitcoin has nothing to do with the rise of Dogecoin, but when Bitcoin is in a bear market, Dogecoin will definitely be bearish, because a bear market in the cryptocurrency market means that there is no liquidity, no retail investors, and nothing in the market. Therefore, you don’t have to buy in a bull market, but you must sell at the end of the bull market, especially the end of Bitcoin. The promotion of Bitcoin’s bull market is essentially the overflow of global liquidity, and countries will not release liquidity alone when the US dollar raises interest rates, so it can also be approximated as the overflow of the US dollar’s interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion. Then the end of the bull market is a precise monetary policy shift, such as interest rate hike signals, balance sheet reduction signals, stop interest rate cut signals, etc., and then there will be a big double top. What is extremely deceptive is the alt season of the Bitcoin bull tail. In other words, the middle of the alt season is the last chance for Dogecoin to escape the top. At the beginning of the alt season, when the sectors have not yet rotated, Dogecoin is already extremely risky, because Doge is one of the very few coins that are logically related to US stocks and global liquidity, just like Bitcoin and Bitcoin.
Specific time example
For example, it is now the end of 2024. We know that there will be a moderate interest rate cut and balance sheet reduction in 2025. There is no information on balance sheet expansion at present. Therefore, the copycat season will come in 2025Q3Q4 or even later. Then the dog's escape will be after the second half of 2025. In other words, now is the bottom. The rise from 0.1 to 0.4 is the bottom, and the fall back to 0.2 is still the bottom.
