After a sharp drop on Friday, Bitcoin briefly rebounded to $95,000 on Saturday, but faced resistance from trend line pressure on Sunday, falling back to $94,500. Currently, market sentiment is weak, with 101,689 liquidations in the past 24 hours, amounting to approximately $261 million.
Christmas Sideways, Market is Dull
According to GTRadar's analysis, Bitcoin typically shows no significant one-sided trend during the Christmas period, with the market more inclined to sideways consolidation. Investors can take advantage of this stage for positioning but should be wary of irrational actions triggered by price fluctuations.
MicroStrategy, as a major buyer of Bitcoin, has recently announced purchase plans every Monday. However, due to the upcoming 'quiet period' before financial report releases, the company and management may not be able to continue increasing their Bitcoin holdings in the next 4-6 weeks. This means the market will temporarily lose an important supporting force, which may put some pressure on Bitcoin's price.
Having reviewed the overall market, let's take a look at the future trends of altcoins!
SEI Market Dynamics
Steadily retreating from the main resistance area, down 9.48% in the past month, with a further drop of 5.95% in the last 24 hours. The market trend remains unclear, and traders need to pay attention to key technical levels.
Technical Analysis:
SEI has currently retreated to the lower boundary support of the ascending channel, facing a critical point for either a rebound or further decline.
If the support level holds, the price is expected to rebound to a target price of $0.65, but whether it can break through depends on the selling pressure in the resistance area.
Trading Data:
Binance Trader Sentiment: The long/short account ratio is 3.65, indicating more traders are bullish; long positions significantly exceed short positions, with a ratio of 2.23.
Liquidation Data: In the last four hours, the amount of short liquidations reached $14,230, while long liquidations were only $1,340, indicating pressure on shorts.
Market Liquidity and Exchange Dynamics:
Liquidity: Total Value Locked (TVL) has dropped to $216.44 million, continuing the declining trend since the end of November.
Net Exchange Flow: The inflow of SEI to exchanges has turned positive for the first time since October 14, indicating that spot traders are moving funds to prepare for selling, increasing downward pressure on prices.
SEI's current support level remains fragile, with price movements depending on the strength of the support rebound and selling pressure from exchanges. If spot funds continue to flow into exchanges, prices may further decline. Traders need to operate cautiously and closely monitor market signals.
PEPE Market Dynamics
According to Coinglass data, PEPE spot outflows exceeded $2.61 billion in the past week. Large outflows usually indicate that investors are storing tokens in personal wallets or cold storage, reducing exchange supply and enhancing scarcity, which is beneficial for price increases.
Key Market Dynamics:
Whale Activity: On December 14, a dormant whale account transferred its entire balance of approximately 2.1 trillion PEPE. These tokens were initially purchased for $27 and are now valued at 1,900,000 times the initial amount, indicating the whale's confidence in the asset or preparation for price volatility.
Trader Sentiment: The Binance PEPEUSDT long-short ratio is 4.15, showing traders are optimistic about the rise. 80% of top traders hold long positions, while 20% hold short. Technically, PEPE is consolidating around a market cap of $1 billion, forming a descending triangle that may see an upward move after breaking above $0.000032.
Price Prediction: According to the analysis, by January 16, 2025, PEPE could rise by 226%, reaching $0.000074. The 14-day RSI is 51, indicating neither overbought nor oversold, with clear upward opportunities.
On-chain Data:
Trading Activity: 24-hour trading volume reached $1.82 billion, with 6,230 active addresses.
Investment Returns: 90% of holders are profitable, with about 20% of investors entering the market in the past month.
Comprehensive technical analysis and on-chain data show that PEPE's current trend is robust, with a potential significant breakthrough in the coming days.
DOGE Market Dynamics
Dogecoin (DOGE), as a leader in the memecoin industry, benefits from strong support from Elon Musk. The network is currently protected by a proof-of-work mechanism and has over 5.9 million on-chain holders.
Although the spot DOGE ETF application has not yet been submitted, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that Trump's presidency could set a precedent for this. If Paul Atkins becomes SEC chairman, the approval probability for crypto ETFs will significantly increase. On-chain data shows that during the recent market downturn, large investors purchased over 250 million DOGE (worth about $77 million), with whale holdings increasing to 1% of the circulating supply.
Market Performance: Dogecoin has entered a correction phase after a significant rise over the past two months, currently with a fully diluted valuation of approximately $47 billion and an average daily trading volume of $5 billion. The price is testing support at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which could lead to a rebound.
Technical Analysis: In the weekly chart, DOGE's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surpassed 85% for the first time since mid-2021, indicating the potential for price to reach new historical highs.
Dogecoin may adjust in the short term due to whale support and potential ETF benefits, but the long-term bullish outlook remains strong.
