❗❗❗ Cryptocurrency market dynamics and BTC market analysis
I. Market environment
- The US Christmas holiday is from December 22 to January 5, 2025, and Wall Street is on holiday.
- The cryptocurrency circle is a zero-sum game field, and the flow of funds determines the rise and fall of the market. Recently, due to the policy shift of the Federal Reserve, global funds have flowed to the US dollar, and the cryptocurrency circle funds have been drained. The reason is that the Federal Reserve has lowered its expectations for interest rate cuts next year, causing the market to release less than expected, and the US dollar interest rate remains high. Funds have flowed back to the US dollar, the US dollar index has risen sharply, and a large amount of cryptocurrency funds have flowed out. At the same time, institutions such as Meitu and Justin Sun sold near the end of the year, hoping to buy the bottom after the decline, resulting in insufficient market liquidity and the emergence of panic trading.
II. Key data performance
- Yesterday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of US$671.9 million, and the Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of US$60.5 million, indicating a trend of capital withdrawal.
- On-chain data shows that the inflow of BTC into exchanges increased by 15,000 yesterday, mainly from Binance (about 10,000), while Coinbase was in an outflow state, and the Asian market was severely smashed, while the US market was absorbing funds.
III. Analysis of BTC trend
- Reasons for the decline: The core is that the Federal Reserve released an unexpected hawkish signal the day before yesterday, and Powell said that subsequent interest rate cuts will be cautious, which shook the financial market, and US stocks also fell sharply, and BTC was implicated.
- Estimated decline: BTC previously traded sideways at a high level for 30 days, and the bottom gradually rose, but fell due to the impact of the Federal Reserve meeting. Its 30-day purchase cost is mostly above US$90,000. Although it is expected to be included in the strategic reserve of the United States, it is still possible to fall, with a maximum decline of US$88,000 (probability 30%).
- Subsequent trend: In the next few days, it is likely to fluctuate in the range of US$94,000-98,000, and will not rebound quickly. We need to wait for the US stock market to stabilize and rebound next week, and the impact of the Fed's policy will be further digested for 3-5 days.
IV. Investment strategy suggestions
You don't have to rush to sell the coins you hold, you can wait for the rebound opportunity. BNB, ETH, SOL, Uni, etc. can be considered to buy the bottom in batches. If the panic decline continues and BTC falls to US$90,000 and ETH falls to US$3,000, I will definitely buy #灰度SUI信托基金 #美联储放鹰 #比特币战略储备 #加密市场回调
