Yesterday, BTC broke below the middle track in the evening and chose to accelerate the pullback directly to accurately test the lower edge of the oscillation channel, which is the cyan line position;

Similar to the previous wave that came down from 104000, this is also a relatively standard oscillation pullback, as it did not break below the lower edge of the oscillation channel, the cyan line;

The difference is that the price did not confirm a break below the middle track previously (each time it dipped below the middle track at the 4-hour close, there were consecutive bullish candles that stood back above the middle track, or it simply made a long wick);

This time, however, the pullback looks more structural (with a clear wave structure), so I believe this may indicate that the previous oscillating upward trend is likely to completely shift to a range oscillation or downward oscillation trend;

In the short term, after a small-scale 5-wave pullback, and gaining support at the cyan line, there should be a rebound attempt to retest the middle track, which is around 100500;

But I subjectively believe that the middle track may not be so easily reclaimed, and the next movement will likely oscillate downwards between the middle track and the cyan line, which favors the bears, the probability will be higher;

The final target is the same as the previous upward oscillation logic; after retesting the middle track and rebounding without breaking the middle track, the price will test towards the average support area near the blue line, currently around 90000;

To summarize, there is a rebound demand in the short term (intraday), with the target at the middle track;

On the swing level (within 7 days), if the price rebound consistently fails to reclaim the middle track, it will likely move along the downward channel formed by the middle track and the cyan line, undergoing oscillation pullbacks;

Until a certain pullback gains momentum, supports at the average support area, and the rebound stands back above the middle track, the pullback will be considered over;

Due to the current closing price being far from the middle track, the trend is considered to have shifted to a bearish oscillation;