The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is finally here, and the market has already priced in the good news.
On December 19, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the third consecutive cut, which met market expectations. Meanwhile, the dot plot indicates that only two rate cuts are planned for 2025 (previously four). Whether it's the bearish effect after the good news is realized or the decrease in the number of rate cuts, it seems that the big players have already sensed the trend and cashed out in advance. Looking back at the chart, it is not hard to find that after Bitcoin hit a new high, the price rise has been weak, and there hasn't even been a pin bar action, which precisely indicates that the main capital has long exited.

In the analysis on the 16th, we mentioned that BTC needs to significantly break out of the current range, but the contradiction between capital inflow and price weakness has long buried hidden dangers. Now, after Bitcoin touches key support and breaks it, it seems to be repeating the script of 2023 - a brief surge followed by a deep pullback.

BTC Technical Analysis: Key support has failed, bears may dominate the market.

Currently, BTC has fallen below the key support level of 103,333, and the previous breakout of the ascending triangle at 102,000 has failed, resulting in a breakdown of the daily ascending channel support. This trend is reminiscent of the market's pullback after hitting 49,000 in 2023.

Technical indicators are also showing obvious signs of decline:

  • The daily MACD shows divergence and a pullback, the RSI indicator has broken through and is now retreating;

  • The first target is set at 90,400, and the second target range is 83,500-85,000, which is a region worth gradually laying out long positions.

A short-term rebound cannot be ruled out, but if BTC cannot regain a foothold in the 102,000-103,333 range, the bearish trend will continue.


ETH Analysis: Key support at 3509, M-head forming.

Ethereum has recently pulled back after a second attempt to hit a high point. Although we previously expected ETH to challenge the stage high point three times, the decline of Bitcoin has dragged down ETH's performance. Currently, the key support level is at 3509, and if it breaks, a typical M-head pattern will form, opening up significant downside potential.

  • First target: 3255

  • Second target: 3000

However, if ETH can successfully hold above 2800 and stabilize, we can boldly lay out long positions in preparation for the Chinese New Year red envelope market.


SOL Analysis: Within the descending channel, follow the trend.

SOL's daily chart remains in a descending channel, unable to break through the previous high of 203. The price has now fallen below, and the next focus is whether the 160-175 range can form effective support and trigger a rebound.

  • If the range is broken, a larger downside space will be welcomed.

Summary and Operational Recommendations

The current market has entered a sensitive area, with the loss of key support and the early exit of large funds pointing to a greater possibility of a short-term pullback. The Chinese New Year red envelope market is worth looking forward to, but we still need to wait for the best entry point.

Recommendations:

  • BTC short-term focus on 90,400, key layout area 83,500-85,000;

  • ETH focus on 3509 support, target 3255 if broken;

  • SOL focus on the 160-175 range support, go with the trend, and avoid bottom-fishing mentality.

The article is for reference only, market conditions change rapidly, for more real-time strategies please follow and stay updated! 👀
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