Mini Program: Daily summary of real estate industry dynamics.
1. Experts: Canceling shared areas is an important task for next year.
On December 17, Zhangjiakou City in Hebei Province issued a policy encouraging 'sales of existing houses' and gradually promoting 'the cancellation of shared areas.' Previously, Hengyang City in Hunan Province clarified that the sale of commercial housing should be priced based on the usable area. Currently, the cancellation of shared areas is beginning to be implemented in multiple locations. Yan Yuejin, deputy director of the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, stated that criticism of shared areas in recent years is due to low usable area rates, which affect home buying rights. The continuous introduction of policies indicates that canceling shared areas is an important task for 2025. A 100-square-meter house could achieve a 100% usable area, helping to improve housing quality, enhance buyer confidence, and increase home purchasing enthusiasm.
2. Central Rural Work Conference: Orderly promote the second round of land contract extensions for another thirty years after expiration.
The Central Rural Work Conference was held in Beijing from the 17th to the 18th, emphasizing the full implementation of further deepening rural reform tasks, orderly promoting the extension of the second round of land contracts for another thirty years after expiration, exploring effective ways to activate and utilize idle rural housing through rental, shareholding, and cooperation, innovating financing mechanisms for rural revitalization, and stimulating the vitality and momentum of rural revitalization.
3. Beijing's housing rental deposits have been regulated at 230 million yuan, with tenants receiving their deposits immediately upon lease termination.
On October 1, 2024, the deposit custody and rent supervision services for housing rentals in Beijing officially launched, marking the first time that Beijing's housing rents and deposits are under regulation. Now, more than two months have passed; how effective has it been? 'The regulation of rent and deposit certainly provides better protection for tenants. Moreover, having the deposit in a regulated account also earns interest,' said a tenant who received their deposit and interest after terminating their lease. Reports indicate that over the past two months, Beijing has recorded 66,000 registered contracts for rent and deposit 'should be regulated,' with a total of 230 million yuan subject to regulation, of which deposits account for 99.5%. Li Junliang, deputy secretary-general of the Beijing Real Estate Agency Association, suggested that citizens should promptly check whether their rents and deposits are under regulation when renting, to protect their rental rights.
4. The China Index Academy: The real estate market may still be in a bottoming phase overall in 2025.
Looking ahead to 2025, policy enhancements are expected to drive expectations recovery, but the real estate market still faces numerous challenges, likely remaining in a bottoming phase. Under neutral circumstances, national commercial housing sales area is expected to decline by about 6% next year. The pace of market recovery relies on the promotion and implementation of already issued policies, particularly the monetization of resettlement for 1 million urban village renovations and acquisition of existing housing. Meanwhile, land reduction, financial pressures on real estate companies, and high inventories make it difficult to change the downward trend in short-term construction investment. The progress of implementing policies to activate existing idle land next year is a key factor in pushing the market into a new cycle and stabilizing investment and construction.
5. New home prices have 'stopped falling and started rising.' Reporters observed that the quasi-fourth generation residential properties in Wuhan are again in high demand.
Since the end of September, multiple measures to stabilize the real estate market have boosted market confidence, and housing transactions in Wuhan have remained active for the past two months. After new home sales in Wuhan exceeded ten thousand units for two consecutive months, the new home prices in Wuhan showed a 'stop in decline and start to rise' for the first time in nearly a year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%. Entering December, favorable policies for the real estate market continue to emerge. The Central Political Bureau meeting held on December 9 has set the tone for stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, continuing the policy of 'promoting the stabilization of the real estate market' from the Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26. In recent days, reporters from the Securities Times have visited several real estate projects in Wuhan, observing that December is a crucial time for developers to strive for performance, with developers generally increasing their sales efforts. Notably, under the continuous strengthening of favorable policies for the real estate market, the sales situation of quasi-fourth generation residential properties has been particularly prominent among many new home projects, with some core areas' quasi-fourth generation residential properties experiencing hot sales and again becoming 'sunshine plates.' For example, in a popular project in Wuchang's Xudong area, the project was the first quasi-fourth generation residential property in the area, with a total of 268 units released on its first opening on December 12. According to the promotional materials released by the sales personnel, over 1,000 customers selected units on that day, selling out within 2 hours, with total transaction amounts exceeding 400 million yuan.
6. The re-loaning of affordable housing has shown results, with over ten cities acquiring existing housing projects.
Since the national meeting on housing security on May 17, relevant departments and localities have closely cooperated to accelerate the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, achieving phased results. Recently, more than ten cities have implemented existing housing acquisition projects, collecting over ten thousand affordable housing units. The national meeting on housing security clarified that in cities with a large inventory of commercial housing, the government can 'purchase as needed' and may acquire some commercial housing at reasonable prices for use as affordable housing. Localities and departments are actively promoting policy implementation, with relevant departments establishing acquisition task forces under the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism to encourage local governments to increase their efforts. Currently, over a hundred cities nationwide have selected acquisition entities, and more than seventy cities have publicly announced calls for housing sources.
7. The Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department of Jilin Province has acquired 397,000 square meters of existing commercial housing.
Jilin Province held a series of thematic press conferences to implement the spirit of the 12th Plenary Session of the Provincial Party Committee (the tenth session). Xu Liang, director of the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department of Jilin Province, introduced that they aim to acquire at least 1 million square meters of existing commercial housing for affordable housing, activate at least 1 million square meters of inefficient land in mature areas within the fourth ring, digest the inventory, and optimize the increment. Currently, 397,000 square meters of existing commercial housing have been acquired, with two high-quality plots being transferred in the main urban area along the convenient transportation routes of Nanhu Road and Heping Street. Three plots covering 179,000 square meters are in the auction process. Based on the pilot implementation situation, the program will be appropriately expanded throughout the province to promote high-quality development of the real estate market. Additionally, the construction of affordable housing and urban village renovations is progressing. This year, 9,073 urban village projects have commenced, with 2,446 units of market-oriented affordable housing under construction, and 11,700 units of affordable rental housing developed. In 2025, the province plans to intensify the renovation of urban villages, constructing 6,000 resettlement houses, transforming 2,000 dilapidated urban houses, and raising 4,000 units of affordable rental housing.
8. Changchun adjusts the housing provident fund usage policy, extending the policy period for increasing the maximum loan amount.
Changchun has adjusted its housing provident fund policy, effective from January 1, 2025. This adjustment involves four aspects. First, it extends the policy period for increasing the maximum loan amount. From January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, for properties located in the main urban area and development zones of Changchun (excluding Shuangyang District and JiaoTai District), the maximum loan amount for single loans with co-borrowers is 1 million yuan, and for single loans without co-borrowers is 800,000 yuan. Second, it adjusts the down payment ratio for second-time use of the housing provident fund for purchasing properties. For second-time use of the housing provident fund to buy newly built commercial housing or existing housing, the down payment ratio should not be less than 20%, and the loan amount should not exceed 80% of the collateral value.
9. Zhangjiajie, Hunan: Fully committed to effectively reclaim and acquire existing idle land using special bond funds.
On December 18, Wang Hongbin, mayor of Zhangjiajie City in Hunan Province, presided over a special meeting to review the city's land reserve special bond project. The meeting emphasized that using special bond funds to reclaim and acquire existing idle land is a key measure to reduce the scale of market land inventory, improve the land supply-demand relationship, enhance the liquidity of local governments and enterprises, and promote the stabilization of the real estate market. Relevant departments and units must attach great importance, seize opportunities, and fully understand the inventory of idle land assets to provide strong support for the city's preparation of a detailed regulatory plan for the central urban area and promote the healthy development of the real estate market. Goals must be clarified, work leadership and scheduling strengthened, policies thoroughly researched and learned, land prices scientifically determined, project application priorities clarified, maximum support sought through reporting upward, and all efforts made to effectively reclaim and acquire existing idle land using special bond funds.
10. The Hong Kong Central Plains Agent Index CSI (Residential Price) has stabilized above 45 points for four consecutive weeks, reflecting a stable overall trend in Hong Kong property prices.
The latest report of the Hong Kong Central Plains Agent Index CSI (Residential Price) is 46.34 points, down 0.37 points from last week's 46.71 points. Yang Mingyi, senior co-director of the Hong Kong Central Real Estate Research Department, indicated that the CSI has fallen for two consecutive weeks, totaling a decrease of 1.12 points, but has stabilized above the lower limit of 45 points for four consecutive weeks, reflecting that property prices remain stable and do not show a downward trend.
11. Sunac has initiated arbitration against Wanda Group, demanding payment of 9.5 billion yuan for the strategic investment repurchase funds.
Reporters learned that Sunac Group has initiated arbitration against Dalian Wanda Group Co., Ltd. at the China International Economic and Trade Arbitration Commission, concerning the earlier strategic investment agreement signed between Sunac and Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group Co., Ltd. Sunac demands that Wanda Group and Wanda Commercial Management pay the corresponding share repurchase funds. According to informed sources, this arbitration application has been accepted.
12. The number of single-family home starts in the U.S. rebounded, but the future construction outlook faces multiple challenges.
In November, U.S. single-family building data rebounded as the impact of hurricanes faded, but the threat of import tariffs and potential labor shortages from mass deportations may hinder next year's construction market. The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that last month, single-family home starts surged by 6.4%, adjusted for seasonal factors, to an annual rate of 1.011 million units. Single-family home starts account for the majority of housing construction. Despite the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates since September, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains close to 7%, aligning with the 10-year Treasury yield. Due to the resilience of the U.S. economy and concerns about inflation resulting from some policies of President-elect Trump, the 10-year Treasury yield has been rising. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates for the third time this week, but the subsequent cuts are anticipated to be less than the four previously predicted in September.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data
