The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in December, but due to pessimism regarding future inflation control, the Fed's stance has turned hawkish.

According to the median estimate of the FOMC's benchmark interest rate by the end of 2025, the benchmark rate will be lowered two more times next year (each by 25 basis points), which is below the market expectation of three rate cuts; meanwhile, the probability of a rate cut in January next year is only 6.4%.