12.19 Market Analysis:

Bitcoin experienced a significant drop today, falling by over 6000 points. Although the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut was in line with market expectations, the market declined rather than rose. Previously, Bitcoin had attempted to break the 110,000 USD level but unfortunately failed to do so.

Technical Analysis:

Firstly, the daily chart shows a large bearish candlestick pattern, with significantly increased trading volume and strong downward momentum. Although the 30-day moving average remains upward, the MACD indicator's fast and slow lines have formed a death cross above the zero line, indicating that a bearish trend is starting to emerge. Moreover, the previous trading day closed with a doji star and a downward shooting pattern, suggesting that a short-term adjustment is imminent.

Secondly, the hourly chart shows a rebound from the 1-day MA30 line and a pullback on the 3-minute chart.

Influencing Factors:

Firstly, the latest Federal Reserve rate decision is not the main trigger for Bitcoin's decline. From the U.S. stock ETF data, BlackRock continues to increase its holdings, while other institutional funds are showing outflows. Investors are concerned about economic data, leading to strong risk-averse sentiment. As the U.S. Christmas holiday approaches, the market's liquidity will also be affected to some extent.

Secondly, Bitcoin's movement has a guiding effect on the performance of altcoins in the future. The current market volatility is becoming increasingly intense, necessitating cautious handling of potential rotation opportunities.

Resistance and Support, and Swing Trading Reference:

Short positions can be established around 112,000, targeting a drop to 100,000 - 99,200. On the daily chart, key attention should be paid to 96,600; if this level is broken, the trend line will be breached, and the bottom support may also be broken.

Swing trading reference is as follows: consider shorting around 101,400; if the 100,000 level is broken, the target could be the 99,800 - 99,200 area.

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