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The countdown to the globally anticipated interest rate decision night has begun—only 4 hours left

11.18 Midnight Analysis Issue 85

It looks like everyone is very excited tonight, seemingly wanting to stay up to increase their positions? The evening discussion has ignited my passion for creation tonight, and it seems I must go live at 2 AM.

First, let's take a look at the market: both Bitcoin and Ethereum have made a surge and then a pullback tonight. This morning, a friend in the comments asked me what to do with the long position at 398; I believe I mentioned that around 389 was an opportunity to escape. If you can escape, tonight you might consider entering a long position around 3786, but don’t go in too heavy, as I’m afraid of a spike, with a stop loss at 3750. Additionally, you can re-enter at 3715 with a slightly larger position, without a stop loss, reserving a position for averaging down, keeping the risk below 2800. Of course, if it doesn’t drop, those who are aggressive can consider shorting at 3820, exiting at 3880. You can choose a stop loss at 38.

Bitcoin's movement is similar; consider entering around 10350 with a small position and aim to gain another $1000, with a stop loss below 103. If you enter at 102460, make sure to set a stop loss at 102; only then will there be a chance.

For now, I'm not looking to short; there may be such drops before the interest rate cut, and it may rise after the midnight close. The closing line must be set this way, just waiting to see where the spike occurs. There will definitely be many betting on a rise tonight, so I believe if it goes up, it’s time to exit, and those who should short must do so 🈳️. This way, this market movement can justify the 8-hour divergence.

Look at the chart to identify these market movements: today I analyzed the 4-hour divergence from 996 down to 909; the 6-hour divergence from 10450 down to 902, and the 8-hour divergence shouldn’t be so lightly dismissed at 103. At least we need a $10,000 drop. Unless it directly rises to $110,000 to break this divergence.

So, from a cost-effectiveness perspective, the upward space is temporarily limited, while the downward space is at least larger before the New Year, so entering on a rise to short is not wrong!